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An Empirical Study on Forecast Bias and Factors in Chinese a Share Market

Author: WangBo
Tutor: GaoXiang
School: Harbin Institute of Technology
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Securities analysts Earnings forecast bias Optimistic Bias Surplus skewed
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 101
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Listed companies Securities analyst research and writing of research reports , information intermediaries in the securities market . The profit forecast is the core message of the research report , earnings forecast accuracy is a measure of the results of the securities analyst . Profit forecast deviation as research content , first detailed overview of our earnings forecast . The review found that the researchers have found that Securities analyst earnings forecasts are optimistic bias phenomenon exists , and tried to explain this phenomenon by the listed company 's own characteristics and analyst profit motive . In this paper, empirical studies China 's A-share market related data from 2002 to 2009 profit forecast deviation to the earnings forecast optimism phenomenon also exists in China 's A-share market , further explanation of securities analysts systematic optimistic bias reasons. Empirical Analysis of Securities Analysts' earnings forecast accuracy and its influencing factors . Based on the analysis of the specific situation of China's securities market , respectively, from the the Securities analyst motives and psychological deviation angle of China 's A-share market earnings forecast optimistic bias phenomenon exists a possible explanation . In addition , through the cross-sectional analysis , this paper discusses the factors that may affect the securities analyst earnings forecast bias . The empirical results show that our securities analysts' earnings forecasts systematic optimistic bias exists , and there are significant differences on the profitability of the company and the loss of earnings forecasts , the profitability of the companies in which the losses are often extremely overestimated Securities analyst . Securities analyst earnings forecast bias and the actual surplus skewed positively correlated . Company earnings predictable negative correlation with the Securities analyst optimistic bias . Approaching and with the actual earnings announcement date listed companies , securities analysts' earnings forecast to gradually reduce the optimistic bias .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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