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The Study on Foreign Exchange Reserve’s Scale of China

Author: MiaoRunYu
Tutor: ShiZuo
School: Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: Foreign exchange reserves Moderate scale Balance of payments Scale management
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2006
Downloads: 366
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In 1994, China successfully conducted foreign exchange management system, to achieve unification of exchange rates and managed floating exchange rate regime in 1996 ahead of the current account convertibility of the same time, rising foreign exchange reserves to maintain a stable momentum into 2005 has been reached $ 881.8 billion. China is undoubtedly sufficient reserves to withstand the impact of the Asian financial crisis and achieve an important guarantee for stable exchange harm. However, in the context of foreign exchange reserves continued to grow, how to develop foreign exchange reserves management policies not only affect the efficiency of the use of foreign exchange reserves, but also directly affect the entire foreign exchange management system operating efficiency. This article will introduce traditional theory model on modest reserves. Appropriate scale model of traditional foreign exchange reserves mainly in the following three ways: First, the proportion of analysis, two is the reserve demand function analysis, three is the cost-benefit analysis. Determine appropriate reserve ratio analysis method is the use of reserves and other economic variables to measure the proportion of reserve adequacy level of a conventional method, there is frequent use of the ratio between reserves for imports (R / M), reserves GNP value (R / GNP) and reserves for external debt (R / D) of the proportional relationship. Reserve demand function is the use of multiple regression analysis and correlation analysis to construct the reserve demand function. Cost-benefit analysis is based on Western theories of microeconomics to maximize profits, reserves held by a country to analyze the costs and benefits, according to the marginal cost of holding reserves and marginal revenue equalization reserve requirements calculated optimum level . These three models have their own advantages, from different sides of modest size of foreign exchange reserves were studied. Then this paper, China's foreign exchange reserves as a research object, the scale of China's current foreign exchange reserves as well as a reasonable policy choice. According to China's actual situation, the reasonable requirements of foreign reserves as the theoretical basis, learn about the model, to build a new model of moderate scale foreign exchange reserves. Then using the model 1994-2005, China's foreign exchange reserves, moderate scale empirical analysis, the larger the scale of China's current foreign exchange reserves of the actual conclusion. Based on this conclusion, and further in-depth analysis of the reasons for the growth of foreign exchange reserves over its impact on China's macroeconomic performance. Finally, the authors point out that in the current situation, although the scale of foreign exchange reserves is too large, but should not be adjusted to take extreme policies and highlighted the relevant policy measures and proposals for reform in order to reduce the negative impact of foreign exchange reserves to protect the economy running smoothly.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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