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A Research on the Fluctuation of China’s Current Account and Its Influence Factors

Author: WangJin
Tutor: PengYuZuo
School: Jiangxi University of Finance
Course: Finance
Keywords: Current Account Change Character Influence Factors Empirical Study Policy Suggestion
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 110
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In recent years, accompanied by financial crisis in the united states,there are many uncertainties will seriously affect the current world economic health.in the international financial market..At the same time,the serious imbalance of current account which is the main forms of the world imbalance of payments is a vulnerability factors in a long period. However,all of these will increase the external risks to the economic development of China.In addition,the serious imbalance of current account has more and more adverse effects on China’s economy. China’s current account has been holding hugesurplus since 2002,the size of surplus and the ratio of GDP from 345.21 hundred million dollars and 2.436%in 2002 rise to 2971 hundred million dollars and 6.051%in 2009.The exiting of huge current account surplus in China has not only increase complexity and difficulty on macroscopic readjustment and control,and increase appreciation pressure of RMB and trade friction,but also go against the mode changing of economic growth and the course of structural readjustment,and has brought negative effect to China’s economic development.Therefore,under a slowdown in world economic growth and a deterioration in global financial environment background,the most important is we should understand what factors cause current account surplus in our country from theories and empirical, and how to put forward some countermeasures to alleviate these factors.Based on this fact,this paper studies the fluctuation of China’s current account and its influence factors from the following respects.First and foremost,we sort out some theories related to current account in brief and analyse the macroeconomics about current account in details.Based on these the author,made a preliminary analysis of the theory on many factors which influence the current account. Secondly, we make the statistical description on the changing in the trend and character of current account,and make a brief analysis from different angles.Then,this paper makes a descriptive analysistry to some factors which effected the changing character of current account and find some possible determinants of the changes to current account balance in China.After that,this paper conducts a series of empirical investigation of the relationship between the determinants and current acount balance based on the theory of econometrics analysis such as Principal Component Analysis,Unit Root test,Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model.The results show that the trend of current account surplus in China is identical with the the degree of financial deepening,relative average per capita income,trade openness, the amount of net foreign assetstrend but contrary to the age structure of population,national investment in fixed assets and the world interest rate.In addition,relative average per capita income,trade openness,the amount of net foreign assets,the age structure of population,national investment in fixed assets and the world interest rate also have a strong influence on the short-term fluctuation in China’s current account balance.while the the stage ofeconomic development and terms of trade have a lest nfluence on the short-term fluctuation.Finally,the paper puts forward the proposals about the corresponding countermeasures.to promote China’s economic sustainable, healthy and stable development in internal and external balance.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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