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The Substantial Research between Money Supply and Macroscopic Economic in Our Country:1993-2004

Author: ZhangNi
Tutor: LiuHongJuan
School: Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
Course: International Trade
Keywords: Money supply Macro-economic Co-integration Test Impulse response Variance Decomposition
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2006
Downloads: 597
Quote: 3
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Abstract

It is the focus discussed about the relationship between the money supply and the macroeconomics. In our country, since 1993, our macro monetary policy controlled mode has changed greatly and started to take the money supply as the middle target of the monetary policy. The mode is turned directly to the indirectly. From 1996 central bank takes the Ml as the short aim and the M2 as the long aim to control. Since 1996, our country successfully soft to land, it has sunk into the shortage of the valid need. Though the Central Bank has adopted a series of measurement, the effect of the adjustment is not satisfied. So it is necessary for us to study the effect of the monetary policy that took the money supply as the middle target and to guarantee the development of the macroeconomics stably.This paper is to do some substantial study about the interaction and the problems of the lags of time between the macroscopic economic and the currency. Wt found it does not matter that the period is a long period or a short term, the money supply all can pull the growth of the GDP, but the effect is different on the structure of the GDP. In the short period, money supply can produce obvious effect on consumption , but in the long period, the function seems to be tired. The consumption is not the Granger cause of the money supply. The effect on invest is multifarious, big range and the function time long. The effect on the fiscal spending is lower far away from other variables. But the fiscal spending can increase the money supply strongly. So, we need to moderate the public policy and the monetary policies match in good time. The foreign exchange increases the money supply endogenesis. The innovation of the huge foreign exchange influents the money supply strengthen and with the time going on, the function is stronger. The foreign exchange exists obviously positive relationship with the money supply. The money supply can affect the stock market obviously. MO produces the effect earlier than Ml and M2. Ml can produces the effect stronger than the MO and M2 and M2 can produces the effect more stable than the other layer money supply. The market stock doesn’t produce the obvious effect on the money supply.All in one word, different layer money supply has different influence on the macroscopic economic. There is not stable long relationship between MO with the macroeconomics. There is stable and long period relationship between M1、 M2 with the macroeconomics and the effect produced by Ml is lead to the effect produced by M2, but the effect produced by M2 is more stable.

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