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Analysis of Trends in Mortality Rate of Cervical Cancer in Henan Province with APC Model, 1985～2004

Author: LiuShuZheng
Tutor: ZhangJianYing
School: Zhengzhou University
Course: Epidemiology and Biostatistics,
Keywords: Cervical Cancer Mortality rate Trends APC model
CLC: R737.33
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 135
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Abstract


Objective: Henan Province since 1983 in the province's 15 cities and counties (representing 1/10 of the total population of the province), established residents sick, injury or death registration reporting system and computer analysis system. Classification of Diseases, 101 kinds of diseases classified by the country beginning to ICD-9, ICD-10 classification criteria, and all data entry computer built library. Of conventional newspaper analysis of mortality data use is mainly concentrated in the crude mortality, causes of death, the standardized rate, life expectancy, go to the cause of death to expect on the calculation and analysis of the common indicators of life expectancy and potential years of life lost. These indicators can adequately describe the distribution and damage of the disease, but the cause of these chronic diseases of the tumor can not be good tips clues. APC model (called the age period - birth cohort Poisson model) analysis than traditional descriptive methods fuller use of existing conventional registration data, provide a basis for decision making health administrative departments at all levels and tumor prevention research institutions, but also can provide valuable clues for further analysis of epidemiological studies to carry out cervical cancer etiology. Most tumor registries in foreign the APC model basically has become the conventional statistical work, but really our only see a small number of reports. Therefore, the analysis of the domestic the tumors registration information should be improved in some ways, the role and potential in order to give full play to and exploit the existing statistics. In this study, through the APC model analysis reveals the possible causes of cervical cancer mortality in the long-term downward trend in Henan Province, to provide a scientific basis for the development of cervical cancer prevention strategies in Henan Province. Method: 1. Extracted from an existing database cervical cancer mortality data and population data around, and the quality of audits. 2. Stratified by gender, age, age, region, crude death rate for cervical cancer using the the SAS calculation of the layers and layers combination, constitute than the standard rate, list or plotted. 3. Geographic distribution use MAPINFOR production Henan Province standardized rate of cervical cancer. 4. Join point model (JOINPOINT model) from 1985 to 2005, Henan Province cervical cancer mortality data for trend analysis. To use APC model age period - cohort analysis to estimate the parameters. Evaluation of age, period and birth cohort in which the role of, suggesting that the cause of clues. The results: 1.1984 ~ 2005 die of cervical cancer in the population of residents of Henan Province, 1/10 of the total number for 4017, the cumulative population of approximately 086 million, the average annual crude mortality rate was 4.67/10 million. Henan Province cervical cancer standardized mortality as 6.97/10 million in 1984, dropped to 2.10/10 million in 2005, the downward trend is very obvious. 2. Join point model displays Henan Province cervical cancer showed a downward trend, and found no statistically significant connection point. Model to estimate the APC (Annual Percent Change) for -4.23,95% confidence interval of (-5.27, -3.17). 3. The APC models show period effect was not statistically significant decline in the mortality rate of cervical cancer is caused due to the cohort effect. Cervical cancer relative risk in 1940 and 1950 showed a significant downward trend in the 1940-1950 period, a period of no significant rise in the plateau and downward trend. Conclusion: 1. The APC model analysis than existing methods to more fully utilize information in the conventional registration data by distinguishing between the period and cohort effects rough tips cause clues. 2. Henan Province cervical cancer standardized mortality rates have continued to decline, the female death causes has dropped to sixth place. 3. Henan Province cervical cancer mortality decline was mainly caused by a cohort effect, prompted the improvement of the health environment and personal hygiene is the main reason. 4. Protection against cervical cancer should mainly take the publicity and education work, to make people aware of the risk factors related to cervical cancer, followed in areas where conditions permit women for cervical cancer screening focusing on the 35-65 year-old age group, so early detection early diagnosis and early treatment.

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CLC: > Medicine, health > Oncology > Genitourinary tumors > Female genital tumors > Uterine tumors
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