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The Applicability of Inflation Targeting in China

Author: LuoLingPing
Tutor: SunWuQin
School: Ningbo University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy Rules Applicability
CLC: F822.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 149
Quote: 1
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Abstract


On the basis of previous studies, we start from the background of the rise of inflation targeting, followed by theoretical origins of inflation targeting, theoretical model, the design of the inflation targeting system, and inflation targeting a prerequisite to do a summary and analysis and according to the data with times difference method (DID) empirical test of inflation targeting to reduce the effect of the implementation of the inflation rate, to conclude: the initial success of inflation targeting key inflation targeting on its own merits and timing of choice. China's current monetary policy to the money supply as an intermediate target and nominal anchor, with the development of financial markets and financial innovation, the money supply has been exposed to low testability, poor control, with the ultimate goal of not higher drawbacks. In addition, China has long been the camera of choice of monetary policy is poor practice effect, the recessive dual nominal anchor - the exchange rate and inflation also exist between the internal and external equilibrium conflict. Whether inflation targeting of monetary policy? Firstly, a prerequisite for the success of inflation targeting as a benchmark, devoted to the analysis of the application of inflation targeting. A prerequisite for inflation targeting with the situation, China's financial system needs to continue to improve and the development of the Central Bank of the lack of independence of tool use, the forecast of inflation measure can not be ascertained, the model will take time, currency policy of transparency and accountability need to be further strengthened; concerning the implementation of the terms of timing, China is in a period of planned economy and a market economy, the development of the market economy is still not perfect, although derived from the GARCH-M model empirical, inflation rate trends and economic growth trends there is a clear relationship, but the controllability of the inflation rate and inflation forecasts also facing many challenges, and the volatility of output growth will lead to decline in the level of output, such as the introduction of rigid inflation targeting but will increase the the cost of the loss of the economies in transition. Therefore, does not have a prerequisite for inflation targeting and implementation of the timing, but can still learn from the experience in the implementation of the inflation targeting countries to improve the system of monetary policy in China, and gradually improve the inflation targeting need to have a prerequisite to develop a medium-and long-term inflation target range of transitional measures to prepare for the future to choose the implementation of inflation targeting.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Inflation
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