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Theoretical and Empirical Research on China’s Trade Surplus and the Rmb Exchange Rate’s Adjustment

Author: LaiXianLing
Tutor: ChenYan
School: Ningbo University
Course: International Trade
Keywords: Exchange rate Trade surplus Cointegration test Renminbi Impulse response function
CLC: F832.6;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 187
Quote: 0
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Abstract


China's trade surplus in recent years on the international community to form the enormous pressure of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate . In order to reduce trade friction , improve bilateral trade relations , July 21, 2005 , China carried out the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism , the establishment of a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies , . Since then , the yuan on the whole to maintain a steady appreciation trend , impact on the trade balance has also become the focus of attention . From the elastic analysis and the theory of absorption analysis , mainly studied the impact of exchange rate changes on China 's trade balance , using the method of combining theoretical and empirical analysis , select the first quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2009 , and January 2003 to January 2009 data , an empirical model and the use of EG two-step method , Granger causality test , vector error correction model and impulse response function to analyze the renminbi's nominal and real effective exchange rate of the Chinese trade balance the impact . The empirical results show that : first, the existence of a positive long - term stable equilibrium relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China's trade surplus , the RMB appreciation will promote China's trade surplus increase . Therefore , at this stage in China , want to rely on the appreciation of the renminbi to reduce the trade surplus is invalid . Second , China's GDP and the trade balance between the positive long - term stable equilibrium relationship , China's economic growth will be to promote the increase of trade surplus . This indicates that China 's domestic demand to promote the role of China's economic growth on exports is greater than the pulling effect on imports . Third , there is a positive long - term stable equilibrium relationship between foreign GDP and China's trade surplus . This means that rapid economic growth caused by foreign demand for imports , the situation of China's trade surplus will expand. Foreign economic recession , the decline in demand for imported products , China 's trade surplus will decline sharply .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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