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Exchange rate changes on Xinjiang Import and Export Trade Empirical Study

Author: LiDeYun
Tutor: GongXinShu
School: Shihezi University
Course: Industrial Economics
Keywords: Exchange rate movements Import and export trade Real Effective Exchange Rate RMB appreciation
CLC: F752.8;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 163
Quote: 0
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Abstract


From the international community against the pressure of RMB appreciation, June 19, 2010 the central bank spokesman said, will further promote the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, enhance RMB exchange rate flexibility. Focusing on the RMB exchange rate based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. July 15, the central bank governor Huxiaolian published an article that should continue to adhere to a managed floating exchange rate system, which is China's established policy, and promoting structural adjustment and optimal allocation of resources, to strengthen and improve macro-control, and enhance the exchange rate regime flexibility. Whether changes in the exchange rate will continue to Xinjiang's import and export trade impact, influence what extent? Paper uses 1985 -2010 RMB real effective exchange rate, Xinjiang's annual import and export trade data and Eviews software for the corresponding empirical research. First, the definition of the concept and the introduction of relevant theories. Secondly, the impact of exchange rate movements and export trade of the four channels are described and analyzed. Again, in the import and export trade of Xinjiang brief overview of the evolution of the exchange rate regime and exchange rate changes influencing factors based on the analysis of exchange rate movements on import and export trade volume of Xinjiang and trade structure. Fourth, the use of 1985-2010 RMB real effective exchange rate, Xinjiang's annual import and export trade data and Eviews software, empirical analysis of the real effective exchange rate movements on import and export trade in Xinjiang, trade delays and trade impact of structural adjustment. Finally, elaborated RMB appreciation impact on Xinjiang's import and export trade effect analysis, and proposed response to further appreciation of the relevant countermeasures. This conclusion is as follows: 1. Through the annual data stationarity test, the RMB real effective exchange rate, import and export value of Xinjiang are second-order single whole sequence, cointegration test after error correction model shows: Export to adjust short-term fluctuations to long-run equilibrium period of about two years to adjust to short-term fluctuations imported long-run equilibrium period of about 1 year. 2 Xinjiang exports and the RMB real effective exchange rate changes inversely relations with foreign GDP showed a positive relationship; Xinjiang Import and real effective exchange rate and Xinjiang's GDP showed a positive relationship. 3 RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation on exports produced a lag effect, the appreciation of the impact on exports in the third year to produce a role; RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation on imports produced a lag effect, the appreciation of the impact on imports in had a role in the second year. 4 from exchange rate movements on import and export of primary products, the impact of that year, the RMB appreciation on imports of primary products, while the effect of the impact on the export of primary products is not great; exchange rate movements on primary products from the lagged effect of perspective, changes in exchange rates imports resulting lag lag effect is greater than exports, the RMB appreciation is conducive to imports of primary products in Xinjiang, Xinjiang is not conducive to export of primary products. 5 from exchange rate movements on the impact of industrial products import and export of the year, the RMB appreciation on the export of manufactured goods while the effect of the impact of imported manufactured goods is not great: made from exchange rate movements on industry see the lagged effects of chemicals, resulting from changes in exchange rates lagged effects of exports than imports lagged effects of the appreciation of the RMB against the export of industrial products in Xinjiang, Xinjiang in favor of imports of manufactured goods.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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