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RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate empirical research

Author: DuWenJie
Tutor: LvJiangLin
School: Jiangxi University of Finance
Course: Finance
Keywords: Renminbi Equilibrium exchange rate Exchange rate regime
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 103
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Since the 2008 financial crisis , the RMB appreciation has become the focus of world attention , increasing pressure on RMB appreciation and some politicians have on various occasions called RMB appreciation in the RMB appreciation is expected, a lot of hot money flowing continuously into China and Asia's major the stock market. Major coastal cities of domestic high prices . To March 2011 , China 's foreign exchange reserves up to $ 3.0447 trillion , the domestic economy is also facing greater inflationary pressures. In China 's rapid economic development, the RMB equilibrium exchange rate caused by the international academic attention and has become a hot issue and has been studied in depth . According to China 's economic development level and the international balance of payments , the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform and improve , and so in order to better carry out the RMB exchange rate reform . Equilibrium exchange rate of RMB to maintaining normal floating RMB exchange rate , and promote China's international balance of payments , maintaining China's macroeconomic and financial market stability is important. This paper describes the theoretical foundation for the theory of the equilibrium exchange rate on domestic and foreign research status overview , and then introduced two mainstream equilibrium exchange rate theory - the theory of traditional and emerging equilibrium exchange rate equilibrium exchange rate theory , and the different models of assumptions, scope and estimated results were compared. Then according to the characteristics of China's economic development and macroeconomic conditions, demonstrates the Chinese should take BEER model as a reasonable RMB equilibrium exchange rate model , select the BEER model equilibrium exchange rate of RMB to build a model and empirical test. Cointegration analysis and error correction model, the variables are impulse response analysis and statistical inspection , analysis concludes . Finally the previous text theories and empirical research , based on the results yuan is undervalued, this can be appropriate to increase the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate , expanding trading range , and that the appreciation of the renminbi range at 4% -9 % Best .

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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