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From the perspective of consumer behavior, the intertemporal trade conditions and Chinese often project

Author: ZhangXun
Tutor: SaiXiaoXu
School: Shandong Normal University
Course: World economy
Keywords: Intertemporal Equilibrium Tilt Consumption Bahavior ConsumerPreferences Prisoner’s Dilemma Youth Consumption
CLC: F752.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2014
Downloads: 9
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Since2005, with the boom of real estate market in the United States and theprosperity of financial asset market at the same time, the world economic growth spedup.It is significantly that trade current-account surplus grew because of a rapidincrease in China’s export. With the US subprime mortgage crisis in2008, the globaleconomy downturned, China’s current-account surplus has a certain extent fall, butstill “high fever”. At the same time, we noticed that the Chinese terms of trade weredeteriorating. Because a country’s terms of trade represents a country’s internationalcompetitiveness in international trade, so when expanding trade scale in our country,we must carefully study deteriorating terms of trade.Only by this way can we providetheory analysis for further rational policy of macro-control and ecomonic reform.This article generalizes the existing research results of the current account andterms of trade at home and abroad,focusing on the development of intertemporalequilibrium analysis.At first,it describes the historical development of intertemporalequilibrium theory.Secondly it made a brief summary of different economic variableson current research literature.In the literature review of the terms of trade, this paperexpounds the theory of trade condition worsening and immiserizing growth, researchon sorting factors that leads to the deterioration of the terms of trade, combeding thefactors influencing the Chinese terms of trade deteriorating research results.Then the interaction process of current account and consumers’ behavior hascarried on the theoretical analysis and empirical test. Through the theoretical analysisof consumption smoothing behavior and consumption leaning behavior, currentaccounts are decomposed into smooth one and the other leaning. And according to thetheory we can deduce the causes of China’s huge current account, thereby throughempirical test we prove the rationality of the theory. By Leida, Linan’s theory modelto explain that whether the beneficial or harmful impact on a country’s terms of tradewhen the current account surplus caused by international wealth transferment, thecause of this phenomenon is the consumption behavior of a country.The analysis ofthe current account surplus that leads to the deterioration of the terms of trade is theresult of China’s special consumption behavior on external economy. Subsequentempirical analysis also proves the rationality of the theoretical analysis.The microscopic mechanism of action in consumer behavior have an impact onthe macroeconomy.Using "prisoner’s dilemma model" in game theory to analyze themicrocosmic factors behind the current account surplus and the deterioration of tradeterms, respectively through two homogenous consumer consumption of game, theyoung and the old consumption of game,government subsidies to the young and theold game,as well as domestic customers and foreign customers game.We illustrate thereason of Chinese residents’ low consumption is lost in the prisoner’s dilemma, and atthe same time the government subsidies to the young and the old game analysis isgiven to solve low consumption in a way out of the prisoner’s dilemma.It requires to nurture young to develope reasonable consumer preferences, and inturn promote the production and consumption structure upgrading, thus achieving China’s foreign economic balance, to further improve the welfare of the nationaleconomy.In terms of the conclusions and policy suggestions, two conclusions are drawn:one is that actual current account surplus come from tilted consumption more than thesmooth consumption.Tilt consumption coefficient greater than1plays an importantrole in the current account surplus.The other is that the terms of trade is one of the keyconditions when international wealth transferment produced by the international tradesurplus translates into long-term welfare. This paper found that trade surplus leads todeteriorating terms of trade because the Chinese people can not produce preferencefor domestic products, prefer labor in the "labor-leisure" choices, and suppressconsumers’ demand of leisure. Possible policy measures are given, includingimproving matching the structure of supply and the structure of demand, purifing theconsumption environment, promoting the development of new type of consumptionpatterns, strengthening the construction of the social security system, cultivating theloyalty of residents for their own country’s products, strengthening the construction ofbrand of enterprises, promoting residents’ leisure consumption.

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