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The Measurement of China’s Foreign Trade Costs and the Analysis of the Influence Factors

Author: YinMin
Tutor: YangDanPing
School: Ningbo University
Course: International Trade
Keywords: Foreign trade costs measurement influence factors
CLC: F752
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 5
Quote: 0
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Abstract


After following Reform and Opening up for more than thirty years, China has created aremarkable economic miracle. Within the miracle foreign trade plays an important role. When theglobal financial crisis hit every country in2008, China’s foreign trade failed to maintain its steadygrowth in2009because of the recession of the market demand. Although the foreign tradevolumes regain growth in2010, the shadow of the global financial crisis is yet to fade away and thecertainty of the future of global economic development, China needs to continue to explore thepower of the future growth of foreign trade. Beside from speeding up the transformation of tradingpatterns, this paper chooses the perspective of reducing the foreign trade costs.The paper first summarized the concept of foreign trade costs, the composition of it as well asthe calculation methods given by foreign scholars. The direct method to estimate the foreign tradecosts is difficult and inaccurate due to the unavailability of data. Therefore the scholars measure theforeign trade costs in the indirect method. Based on the iceberg bilateral trade cost and multilateraltrade barriers in the general equilibrium model, this paper makes a measurement of the foreigntrade cost between China and its fifteen major trading partners in1993-2010. After themeasurement the paper gives a qualitative analysis of the five categories of factors that influenceChina’s foreign trade costs, which are geographic distances, the economic factors, historic factors,institutional factors and fundamental factors. Then according to the actual situation of China’sforeign trade, the paper selects eight regression variables to analyze the influence factors of China’sforeign trade costs, which are whether it has a common border, the tariff level of the two countries,the absolute value of the per capita GDP difference, whether to use a common language, whetherto join the WTO, whether to sign a free trade agreement and bilateral Internet users. Finally,according to the conclusions of the empirical analysis the paper gives the relevantrecommendations for the development of foreign trade in China.The conclusions drawn in this paper are as follows: The average foreign trade costs present adownward trend from1993to2010, a drop of38.24%. View from the perspective of distance,income and national attributes, the greater the distance, the lower-income, the greater the foreigntrade costs. The bilateral trade costs between China and the East Asia is lowest, followed by Europe and the United States, and finally the BRIC countries. Of the empirical analysis on theinfluence factors, in addition to the tariff level, seven other variables have significant impacts onChina’s foreign trade costs. Closer distance, sharing a common border, the larger the absolutevalue of the per capita GDP difference, using a common language, joining the WTO, signing theFTA and the higher the Internet penetration rate of the two countries, the smaller the foreign tradecosts. Finally, the paper put forwards some appropriate recommendations to the development ofChina’s foreign trade in the future.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade
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