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The Cause and Administration of Chinese Currency Over-issuance

Author: LiuChangQing
Tutor: ZhengMing
School: Xiamen University
Course: Financial
Keywords: Currency over-issue Economic growth Empirical analysis
CLC: F822.2
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2014
Downloads: 5
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Money supply and inflation, the relationship between economic growth and inflation, both important topics in macroeconomics theory, but also the reality of the economic development of the important issues. In our current economic situation, faced with economic slowdown, the issue of-excessive monetary inflation and downs of a complex situation. During China’s economic restructuring, monetization rate is too high there may be a longer period of the phenomenon, the study of how to systematically address the impact of over-reliance on money supply and inflation, economic growth has practical significance.Theoretically, the currency over easily lead to inflation, which in turn stimulate economic growth; according to characteristics of China’s economic development stage, it did not cause serious inflation and failed to promote rapid economic growth, money seems to go up into a "Chinese-style black box", our research clear the relationship between money supply and inflation, economic growth, revealing the deep-seated causes of our current economic situation, economic growth in the future stability of a stage of great significance. Therefore, we draw on existing macroeconomic theory, and the introduction of the latest research methods, establish vector autoregression model(VAR) to empirical research on our sample data, to explore the reasons for the currency over the country as well as inflation, economic growth impact, with the impulse response function and variance decomposition of the relationship between the three was carefully combed analysis.Through empirical analysis of currency circulation between inflation and economic growth of the three, we conclude that:(1) Currency over inflation in the short term have a stimulating effect on economic growth, but in the long-term memory in certain negative effects.(2) Economic growth will bring a certain degree of inflation, but not the most important factor, monetary circulation is also not the most important factor of inflation.(3) Due to the presence of some of the structural problems of our economy, the financial system has yet to improve, resulting in a currency over, economic growth, the special relationship between inflation.(4) From the perspective of the entire financial system to solve the problem, rather than a single monetary policy or fiscal policy, by the economic structure to improve financial market environment to completely solve the currency issued phenomenon.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Money management and circulation
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