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An Empirical Study of China’s Inflation

Author: JinJian
Tutor: SunYong
School: Central China Normal University
Course: Political Economics
Keywords: Inflation Empirical analysis Economic growth Econometric model
CLC: F822.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2014
Downloads: 3
Quote: 0
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Inflation is a complex economic phenomena, it can distort the existing economic order, change the existing price system, then have mach profound impact on real output, consumption and wealth distribution. Therefore, it has important theoretical and practical value to be in depth study, analysis of the formation mechanism of inflation, and to find the management measures from the different dimensions of the problem of inflation.The first chapter of this thesis summarizes previous theories about inflation. On this basis, we introduce some influencing factors of inflation, then do some empirical researches on the relationship between these factors and the inflation rate by econometric methods.And to continuously verify and eventually identify the factors most closely with the inflation by measurement of the statistical results. At last write the regression equation between them. On the other hand, we use unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, do autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity test inspection and correction of regression models,then use generalized difference method and weighted least squares method,eventually form a more significant higher goodness of fit regression model.The econometric models in this article include long-term model and short-term one, and get the corresponding results. In the long run, inflation is mainly due to excess money, while short-term factors that affect inflation are more complicated. By the empirical model analysis, in the long run, the main impact of inflation is M2, and the current M2impacts on the next period inflation. In the short term, the impact of inflation is more complex, empirical model results do not reflect the impact factor, but have verified the short-M1and international commodity prices impact on inflation is large, and the current M1impacts inflation on the next.Finally, the measurement results of this analysis combined with inflation-related theoretical knowledge and historical experience, we provide advices for the management of inflation.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Inflation
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