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Research on the Impact of Inflation to Shanghai Stock Index

Author: LiDongMing
Tutor: SongLin
Course: Finance
Keywords: Economic growth Inflation Shanghai Stock Price Index
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2014
Downloads: 2
Quote: 0
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Inflation is an important influencing factor to stock price index, investor often takeinflation into consideration when investing stock market.But in the different stage of economic growth stock price index is not related withinflation in positive or negative with regard to the historic trendency in Shanghai A-sharemarket.For example, CPI broke though5%in2011, GDP growth rate is9.2%in the sameyear,which is relatively low growth stage compared to10.3%in2010, Shanghai A-sharemarket step into bear market, the stock price index is in negative correlation with inflationin this stage; CPI is4.8%in2007, GDP growth rate is14.2%,which is high growth stage,Shanghai A-share index reach6124at its maximum which break record, the stock priceindex is in positive correlation with inflation in this stage.This article is separated into five parts. The first part of this article clarified thebackground, significance, research ideas, content and structure arrangements andinnovations etc. grasp the overall situation of the paper. In the second part, systematicallyintroduce the general theory of inflation and various kinds factors that influence stock priceindex. In the third part, qualitative analysis the relationship between inflation and stockindex under different economic growth stage,and the transmission mechanism betweenthem. The fourth part of this article on the base of previous three parts use Unit root testson the relevant data, cointegration test, Granger causality test, and then build the vectorerror correct model to test the relationship between inflation and stock price index, use theimpulse response function analysis the estimate equation results. The empirical test resultsshow that the stock price index is in positive correlation with inflation in the high increasestage of economy, negative in the low increase stage of economy. Finally, analyze theempirical results and make relevant policy recommendations.This text reach an conclusion that the stock price index is in positive correlation withinflation in the high increase stage of economy, negative in the low increase stage ofeconomy.

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