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Study on Inflation and Money Supply, Economic Growth

Author: LiuXiaoBo
Tutor: ChenYaoHui
School: Nanjing University of Finance and Economics
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: currency supplies inflation economic growth quantile regression
CLC: F822.0
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 5
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Each country governments are concerned about the following threemacroeconomic goals, the money supply, economic growth and inflation, the rapidgrowth of the economy can cause inflation, however, serious inflation will hampereconomic development, they often have conflicts. Therefore, how to maintain a rapidand smooth economic growth while maintaining a low inflation rate, this is animportant problem need to be addressed by the Government of each country,Especially in a period of rapid economic growth of China, the task seemed daunting.The theoretical analysis section of this article introduces four times inflationsince China’s reform and opening up and economic achievements. In the empiricalanalysis, selection of the1985-2011economic data in China, then use a variety ofmeasurement methods to study the relationship between China’s money supply,inflation and economic growth. First, establish a linear regression model to study therelationship between them, find that the model is flawed, then set up a VAR model,Impulse response and variance decomposition to study the relationship between them,but the model is still inadequate, and can’t get a comprehensive analysis of results,finally, to improve the method of measurement, using quantile regression model tostudy the relationship between them, finally to get the comprehensive analysis of theresults, and received the following conclusions:(1) Money supply and economic growth can have a positive impact on inflation,and they can lead to inflation, in the case of control all other variables constant, theimpact of economic growth on inflation is greater than the impact of the moneysupply.(2) Money supply and economic growth are the Granger reasons of inflation,inflation and economic growth is a two-way causal relationship, Inflation and moneysupply is a one-way causal relationship.(3) Inflation, economic growth and money supply have two cointegrationrelationship, they have long-term equilibrium relationship. Money supply andeconomic growth are more obvious impact on inflation, and last for a very long time.(4) Sometimes, Inflation will be sustained for a long time, it difficult to return toa reasonable level in a short term, this requires the government to strengthenmacroeconomic regulation and control, to maintain a healthy and stable developmentof the economy by curbing inflation; when inflation at a lower or a higher level, theimpact of economic growth on inflation is relatively small, when inflation at a moderate level, the impact of economic growth on inflation is relatively large. Nomatter at what level of inflation, the impact of money supply on inflation is large,Moreover, with the deepening of the level of inflation, the impact of money supply oninflation is more and more larger; no matter at what level of economic growth, theimpact of current inflation on economic growth is large, will promote economicgrowth.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Principle of policy and its elaborate
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