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The Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Economic Development

Author: LiShuo
Tutor: WangXiangMin
School: Northeast Normal University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Exchange rate Economic growth Net export trade Foreign Direct Investment
CLC: F124
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 82
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Since more than 60% of China's foreign economic accounted for the proportion of total economic output, exchange rate fluctuations affect domestic prices and macroeconomic factors. The reform of China's exchange rate regime will play an important impact on China's future economic development. Especially in recent years, changing due to the domestic and international economic and political factors, the continued appreciation of the RMB, the RMB exchange rate movements on the impact of China's economic growth also became clear. The purpose of this writing is that the latest statistics, from the perspective of long-term economic development, the impact of the comprehensive survey of exchange rate changes on domestic economic variables, which provide some suggestions for the reform of China's exchange rate regime. In this paper, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, in-depth analysis of the interaction mechanism between the exchange rate level and exchange rate stability and economic growth. Emphasis on empirical research, the variable exchange rates, net export trade, foreign direct investment and domestic GDP from 1985 to 2010 time series data based on vector auto regression model, using Granger causality test, pulse response function and econometric techniques, empirical studies of the relationship between the level of the real exchange rate and its stability and economic growth. Finally, based on theoretical and empirical research findings, combined with China's actual situation of this conclusion reference for China to develop a reasonable exchange rate policy. The research results show that the exchange rate level than the close of the two-way relationship with China's economic growth. The one hand, by way of the net export trade balance, exchange rate changes have a significant role in the economic growth and conduction mechanism through trade channels, although it is not obvious, but with the expansion of the trade balance accounted for, will bring to the greater impact. On the other hand, by way of foreign direct investment, exchange rate changes in the level of economic growth has a significant role in the conduction mechanism but also by way of foreign direct investment is very obvious. However, from the current data, it is not yet to come to the conclusion of GDP reacts on the exchange rate level. Way influence relationship between exchange rate stability and economic growth that fluctuations in the exchange rate has a significant impact on the economic situation of a country. In the current economic situation, speaking from the perspective of international economic, there must be the role of the exchange rate of the economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to further improve the exchange rate regime, to relax the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate in order to establish a more flexible RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, while maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate foreseeable, in order to better promote the exchange rate regime

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > Economic construction and development
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