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International speculative capital inflows, trade roots

Author: CaoMei
Tutor: YinXiangShuo
School: Fudan University
Course: International Trade
Keywords: International speculative capital Trade surplus RMB expected appreciation rate
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 117
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Abstract


Research on international speculative capital inflows, due to the emerging developing countries dependence on capital in the process of the development of export-oriented economy, but it caused the volatility of the financial system and the negative impact on the real economy makes academia must-depth on this issue research. Issue in China, international capital flows and there particularity, such as re-export trade, domestic capital flight after the return to currency Renminbi freely convertible, speculative capital is hidden in the trade channels. For the treatment of these peculiarities is the innovation of this paper, it is estimated that the number of speculative capital inflows from trade channels and other channels, and further empirical analysis, analysis of international speculative capital inflows into China from the perspective of the real economy. Be adjusted according to the interest rate parity theorem as well as internal and external equilibrium theory, this paper attempts to analyze the reasons of speculative capital inflows from the perspective of trade, under the assumption that international speculative capital inflow of income from domestic and foreign interest rate differential, the expected appreciation rate of the local currency and assets . Unlike other Asian countries, channels and the impact of the inflow of speculative capital, the analysis method is different from their predecessors. First estimate for China's international trade mixed speculative capital, then the sum of the sum of the current and capital inflow of speculative capital, by direct methods to estimate the number of the inflow of speculative capital. This figure is based on the empirical analysis to explore the root causes of international speculative capital inflows into China. The theoretical analysis, to analyze the reasons of international speculative capital inflows from the supply level, the demand level, the institutional level, and the level of policy path. As the supply of dollars is not subject to our control exogenous variables, the system of the reasons is exogenous policy path factors as exogenous. Thus, this article only from the point of view of the demand level empirical analysis of the root causes of international speculative capital inflows. It is worth mentioning is that the international speculative capital flows into the country, a mix of some domestic capital flight, this part of the capital back to China's macro-financial variables impact, but because of data availability The empirical study temporarily ignored. Financial data and the real economy data is the frequency of the different problems encountered in the empirical analysis part, to take a two-step method, first using monthly data begins with the assumption based on analysis of trade surplus with the domestic and foreign interest rate differential, RMB appreciation rate is expected, the relationship between the domestic asset prices. Then use annual data to analyze the relationship between the international speculative capital inflows and trade surplus. Finally concluded, the trade surplus by affecting domestic and foreign interest rate differential, the rate of appreciation of the local currency is expected to affect the capital gains, in order to attract foreign speculative capital inflows. Finally, analysis of the negative factors of speculative capital inflows, and learn from international experience to avoid or eliminate the negative factors, the direction of further analysis in this article, the data to estimate the accuracy as well as consideration of policy factors.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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