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Research of Coal Project Investment Decision-making Based on Real Option

Author: ChenLv
Tutor: SunXiaoJuan
School: Lanzhou Commercial College
Course: National Economics
Keywords: Real Options Coal project Investment decisions
CLC: F426.21
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 158
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Coal is an important non-renewable resources , in the increasingly tense international coal resources , coal project decision - makers more and more attention to the analysis of the investment decision - making method . How to apply scientific and effective evaluation methods coal project investment decision-making , decision-makers the urgent need to address the problem . The traditional coal project investment decision-making method (DCF) have limitations , mainly ignored the value of the coal project investment uncertainty and dynamic flexibility . Therefore, in practical applications , there is a larger defects , often underestimate the true value of the coal projects , which lead to wrong decisions . Based on this, the introduction of real options approach to coal project investment decisions , this method can objectively deal with the coal project investment uncertainty and flexibility of project management is a more reasonable coal project investment decision-making method . Firstly, in-depth analysis of the real option characteristics of the coal project investment decision-making under uncertainty , the type and value of the options pricing method is proposed real option theory is the traditional investment decision-making method of correction , to build a real option in the coal investment decision in the application of the framework . On this basis , combined with the real option characteristics coal project investment , coal project investment decisions based on the Black-Scholes option pricing principle to establish real option pricing model . Finally, the application of the pricing model example analysis with traditional NPV method comparative analysis , real options method is more effective evaluation of the value of the coal project . Through case analysis , real options method is more scientific and effective than traditional coal project investment decisions , and has a strong operational . This evaluation method is a useful exploration of China's coal project investment decision - making , has high theoretical and practical value .

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CLC: > Economic > Industrial economy > China Industrial Economy > Industrial sector economy
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