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The Study on the Relationship of the Economic Growth and International Trade in Qingdao

Author: ShiHuiYan
Tutor: YinKeDong
School: Ocean University of China
Course: Finance
Keywords: Economic growth Export contribution Cointegration Vector autoregression model Impulse response function
CLC: F127;F752.62
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 144
Quote: 1
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Abstract


From the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis began to spread and develop into a global financial crisis has spread to more than two years. The financial crisis has a huge impact on the global economy for all to see. As countries actively promote the economic stimulus plan, the world economy started to recover gradually after bottoming out. China in the extraordinarily complex and difficult environment in 2009, the economy maintained a growth rate of 8 percent, the first to achieve economic recovery in the world for the better. But the external economic conditions are still not optimistic, especially in the world's major economies hit by the crisis after the decreased demand and growth in the case of slow recovery, against our country have introduced protectionist trade policies, China's import and export trade more serious setback. In this context, as China's Qingdao City, an important foreign trade port cities in foreign trade has a unique geographical and policy advantages, but the harsh external trade environment Qingdao undoubtedly a huge impact on economic growth. Articles by demand factors of economic growth point to the foot, from the financial crisis have a negative impact on the import and export trade and thus hinder economic growth in the angle. After combing the relevant theory, but also in-depth analysis of the impact of exports on economic growth as well as the mechanisms of economic and export Qingdao overall operation, using time series analysis method, using smooth analysis, cointegration, vector autoregression model, impulse response function, variance decomposition, import and export trade to economic growth and the quantitative relationship between the empirical analysis. In addition, by measuring the dependence on foreign trade and export of Qingdao contribution changes during the crisis, reflecting the financial crisis has weakened external demand contribution to economic growth. So as to arrive at present to ensure stable economic growth is the main driver of domestic demand - consumption and investment conclusions. In the empirical analysis, based on the import and export trade development and steady economic growth and policy recommendations. First, an overview of international trade theory, economic growth theory and the relationship between them, theoretically elaborate and as a modeling and analysis guidance. Secondly, the further impact on export growth from economic growth, the mechanism of action of both supply and demand factors channels are analyzed, and further elaborated mechanism to play a role in the condition. Third, the combination of size and structure of the financial crisis in terms of both economic development and analysis of Qingdao export trade development, the initial understanding of the financial crisis on economic growth and export Qingdao trade. Fourth, the combination of the first three parts of the theoretical and the actual situation of Qingdao relationship between exports and economic growth in the unit root test, cointegration test and VAR Model analysis and compare before and after the crisis model impulse response function and the variance decomposition the results are different. Fifth, determine Qingdao relationship between economic growth and exports, based on the dependence on foreign trade and export of Qingdao contribution is calculated on, to discern the financial crisis on the impact of both trends. Finally, to obtain empirical analysis conclusion: the financial crisis has changed the exports and economic growth relationship between long-term impact, but also exported stimulating effect on economic growth suffered a serious setback at stake, the corresponding domestic demand to become a major force driving economic growth, and empirical results based on policy recommendations.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade > Import and Export Trade Overview > Export trade
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