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Time Variable、Income Uncertainty and Rural Residents Consumption Behavior in China

Author: XiaQing
Tutor: LiJinChang
School: Zhejiang Technology and Business University
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Consumption Consumption structure Mutations Uncertainty Consumption Function
CLC: F126
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 215
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Consumption is one of the three major forces promoting economic growth, macroeconomic analysis and modern economic theory is an important endogenous variables. Which account for a large proportion of the consumer has aroused extensive attention of scholars, especially for urban residents' consumption behavior, academics different perspectives, different theoretical framework, a lot of research. However, rural residents' consumption behavior specifically, the analysis of the system of insufficient. At present, the consumption of rural residents is not optimistic, consumer demand remains in the doldrums, the high savings rate, lack of effective demand, the overall low propensity to consume, consumption is expected to deteriorate, a huge difference in the overall spending power of urban and rural areas; and continuous development of the market economy, long been influenced by the dual system of rural residents faced balance of payments the degree of uncertainty is also growing. Traditional consumption theory in the past no longer meet the current consumption of rural residents in China. Therefore, we hope to be able to find the new variable affect the consumption of rural residents and their impact mechanism, and thus provide a valuable reference for the promotion of rural residents 'consumption by analyzing the behavior of Chinese rural residents' consumption. The paper is based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the use of statistical methods and econometric models, consumer function analysis from the micro and macro aspects of Chinese rural residents' consumption structure change process as well as under conditions of uncertainty. Firstly, observed changes in the structure of household consumption in rural areas the development process as well as internal consumption variation characteristics of master stage characteristics of rural residents' consumption structure by calculating a series of statistical indicators, divided the evolution of the consumption structure, and residents 'consumption structure optimization and upgrading of direction judgment; followed by the measurement method to verify and adjust the phasing of consumption structure and analyze the consumption structure varied in different stages of evolution characteristics; Finally, the consumption function analysis of rural residents' consumption behavior the decision-making mechanism, the use of the model to deduce the form of the consumption function under conditions of uncertainty, to discuss the future income and expenditure of uncertainty on consumer behavior under conditions of uncertainty. We find that rural residents' consumption structure optimization and upgrading, and presented the phase characteristics. Rural residents basic living to meet the increasing demand for non-material consumption. However, the upgrading of consumption slowdown in consumption structure optimization path is blocked. With the continuous development of market economy, the long-term impact of the dual system, future income and expenditure of the uncertainty of the new era important variables affecting the consumption of rural residents, and the uncertainty on the consumption of rural residents does have a negative impact uncertain enhanced so that the residents \At the same time, the uncertainties can explain consumer has \

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > People's living conditions
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