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Provincial electricity demand synthesis of the leading index

Author: ZhangMei
Tutor: CuiWei
School: Dalian Maritime University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Leading Indicators Electricity demand Synthetic Index
CLC: F426.61
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 77
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Electricity is the lifeblood of economic development , while the electrical energy itself can not be stored , which is why early warning requirements of the electricity market research , not only related to the electricity sector for the production of operational planning to provide important reference, but also effectively prevent the electricity market environment a variety of risks , has a very important practical significance. The purpose of this paper is through cyclical fluctuations in demand for electricity market research , build a leading indicator of demand for electricity market early warning system for the scientific management of the power industry investment and provide a reliable theoretical basis . Chongqing electric power demand for the specific circumstances of experts from home and abroad on the basis of the findings of the electricity demand in Chongqing economic indicators related to a preliminary screening . Using cointegration test and Granger causality test on 38 economic indicators were screened in accordance with the indicators and benchmarks cycle indicators - the first sales of electricity between the alternate index is divided into leading indicators , consistent three indicators and lagging indicators indicators . Leading indicators and the first in selected periods , the use of principal component analysis synthesized Leading Composite Index , the overall market demand for electricity to predict fluctuations in judgment . As a quantitative composite index can not judge , we use stepwise regression method selected leading indicators and the first phases of the electricity market demand is predicted , and build regression models were tested , the test results show that the model adopted R2 test, F-test and autocorrelation test, predicted better results . Through the analysis of the above methods , this paper constructs the provincial electricity market demand Leading Composite Index , in advance of the trends to predict the turning point , which can effectively prevent the electricity market environment of the various risks , improve energy efficiency, enhance the smart grid construction for the government or departmental decision-making power to provide a reliable reference.

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