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Research on Financial Sustainability of Japan

Author: GuoXiuZhen
Tutor: WuXinRu
School: East China Normal University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Fiscal sustainability Relative index Japanese government bonds Empirical Analysis
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 181
Quote: 1
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Abstract


After World War II, the national debt policy has become the Japanese government to stimulate economic development an integral part of policy tools. Especially since Japan's economic bubble burst, in order to stimulate economic growth, the Japanese government Keynesian, through a large number of treasury bonds to stimulate growth, the gradual accumulation of a large-scale balance of government bonds. Japan's fiscal sustainability, and to consider the credit risk of Japanese government bonds, the structure of whether China's investment in the foreign currency reserve assets held by Japanese government bonds and Japanese government bonds held choose to raise reference. Fiscal sustainability has two parts, the first part relative index of Japanese government bonds deficit and the analysis; second part of the empirical analysis of the financial sustainability of Japan since World War II, using the intertemporal budget constraints, the overall analysis and segmentation analysis of World War II Japanese government bonds change in policy and take the fiscal sustainability of the national debt policy period for analysis. The first relative indicators law analysis on the scale of Japan's national debt, the debt burden rate dependence on government bonds relative indicators to measure the size of Japanese government bonds, and the scale is too large the conclusion of Japanese government bonds. However, due to the closed nature of the Japanese government bonds, bonds issued mainly for their own sound institutions held by Japan's debt burden rate is high, has not similar to the Greek sovereign debt crisis broke out. On the Japanese fiscal sustainability empirical test Eviews6.0 completion of the measurement software, financial income and financial expenses cointegration relationship and the size of the cointegration coefficient to determine whether the financial sustainability of Japan after World War II to the present financial is significantly unsustainable results. If the laissez-faire current budget deficit no matter, then at some point in the future, Japan will take place in the financial crisis, the holders of Japanese government bonds will be faced with the risk of default or delinquency. The short term, in the 1990s, Japan's bubble economy burst so far, Japan's fiscal significantly unsustainable. Therefore, China's foreign exchange reserves investment, holders of short-term Japanese government bonds, in order to get the current strong yen exchange rate gains. However, long-term Japanese government bonds credit risk is too large, and JGB yield is too low, therefore, to reduce the proportion of long-term Japanese government bonds in the basket of foreign reserves in China.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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