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Nansi Lake is one of the top ten freshwater , Shandong Province, an important water source , but also a major North Water Transfer Project Regulating hub area. Since the 1980s, since the serious deterioration of water quality in Nansi Lake , which is a large number of heavily polluted rivers into the lake has a close relationship . Therefore, to understand the degree of pollution of rivers into the lake , the water quality of the river into the lake evaluation situation, make a reasonable prediction of the future water quality , for Nansi Lake basin water pollution control has certain guiding significance. This combined with the actual situation , select a part of the main rivers into the lake on the river into the lake water quality Nansi were analyzed , its comprehensive evaluation of water quality and eutrophication assessment and use gray forecasting model , east of Fish River Case to predict water quality in the next three years . Following major elements: ( 1 ) According to Nansi river into the lake water quality monitoring results , the use of comprehensive water quality identification index , monitoring sections of the river into the lake on the single factor evaluation and comprehensive water quality evaluation . The results show that the comprehensive water quality gradually improved overall , castle river , the old canal, light pollution River House , East Fish River , Si River water quality is good . ( 2 ) on the river into the lake eutrophication indicators for evaluation. The results show that optical River House , castle River, Zhu Zhao river eutrophication more serious , Si River, Fish River East relatively good nutritional status . ( 3 ) combined with Nansi rivers into the lake water quality monitoring data , the choice based on the theory of gray system GM (1,1) prediction model and the improved model of the East River, the main indicators for monitoring the concentration of the fish to make a prediction , with some theoretical guidance value . ( 4 ) into the lake on Nansi evaluation and prediction of river water quality , based on the analysis of the Nansi Lake watershed pollution causes and puts forward the watershed management measures, such as : the river into the lake pollution control, non-point source pollution governance , ecosystem function restoration, management regulations development and so on.
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