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The Study of Herding Behavior between Price and Volume of Commercial Housing

Author: BaoWeiWei
Tutor: TangGenNian
School: Zhejiang University of Technology
Course: Technology Economics and Management
Keywords: Herding behavior Threshold auto-regressive Fluctuation of price andvolume Commercial housing market
CLC: F293.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 48
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The real estate market of Hangzhou is taken as a case in this paper. Based on thedaily deal of price and volume of Hangzhou commercial housing, researching theherding behavior in real estate market. And creatively use the ThresholdAuto-Regressive Model to find out the catastrophe point between price and volume,which contribute to analyzing the influence of fluctuates between price and volumeaccording to herding behavior. Further, zone Hangzhou into five, on this conditionquantitatively analyzing the fluctuation characteristic of price and volume. Find outboth price and volume exist obvious threshold characteristic. Then, make herdingbehavior research on zone, find that serious herding behavior exists in each zone ofHangzhou commercial residential building, and the non-rational price rising severelyaffected consumers’ purchase.After further study, discover that the price and volume will push each other in ashort time according to the herding behavior, leading to sharp increasing in tradingvolume within a short time, and promoting the price madly rising at the same time.Speculative demand is the main part of the increasing volume. However, in the longrun, speculative demand can hardly afford high price. Under the pressure of the highprice, the volume can’t continue to rise and appear rapidly shrinking at last. Withoutthe support of the volume, the price still rapidly rises, so the herding behavior can’t bethe source power of promoting the price long-term rising. This causes us to thinkabout what lead to the price irrationally rising. This paper selects six volume, includes:the accumulative total disposable income, the accumulative real estate investment, theland exchange price index of Hangzhou, the bank deposit rate, the last issue of thevolume of commercial housing and the current volume of commercial. And finallyfind that the tax policy and the land policy and financial support make the most effectson price going up.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban Economics and Management > The real estate economy
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