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Population change Suzhou Mathematical Simulation

Author: HuangXuLiang
Tutor: PengXiZhe
School: Fudan University
Course: Population , resources and environment, economy
Keywords: Population projections Age structure Fertility policy Moving population Mathematical simulation model
CLC: C924.2
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 78
Quote: 0
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Abstract


People are the most fundamental elements of community and social activities. Population quantity, quality and age distribution directly affects a region’s economic development, resources distribution, social security and social stability. China is the world’s most populous country, the population issue is always related to whether our country would be long-term and sustainable development.The current population problem in China is not a simple problem of the total population, at the same time the problem of population structure also highlights. As the population situation increasingly complex, the traditional rough outline population forecast cannot satisfy the need of population research and policy formulation, and the demand of population prediction accuracy on population planning is increasing.In this paper, we use the mathematical simulation model that can consider the interaction between individuals to predict the changes the future population structure of Suzhou. Through the simulation, we got Suzhou City’s future population changes under the different conditions, such as whether the fertility policy releases second birth and different amounts of moving people. By analyzing the predicted results, we hope to get some useful conclusions for the future population policy of Suzhou.

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CLC: > Social Sciences > Demographic > Investigation and research of the world population > China's population
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