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Comparative Analysis of the Effect of the Real Effective Exchange Rate on Trade before and after the Reform of Exchange Rate

Author: DengZuoJie
Tutor: GuoHaiHua
School: Jinan University
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: The real effective exchange rate of RMB J-curve effect Margin cointegration ARDL-ECM model
CLC: F752
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 241
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Before the reform of the exchange rate mechanism , the real effective exchange rate of RMB is in the decline stage , after the exchange rate reform in July 21, 2005 , to the end of 2008 , the appreciation of the RMB accumulated more than 20% . RMB exchange rate movements and the relationship between China's foreign trade has always been the focus of attention of domestic and foreign scholars . Therefore, the RMB exchange rate changes on trade if there is a significant impact , is the subject of this study . This article using monthly data from January 2002 to June 2008 to July 2005 , the limit of the above study period is divided into two sections , the use of margin cointegration analysis method to establish model for comparative analysis , the exchange rate mechanism before and after the reform : 1 . export trade by exchange rate movements significantly affected , in the opposite direction ; import trade in the pre-reform by the significant impact of exchange rate movements , reform after sustained impact is not significant with ; 2 . exchange rate changes on different trade way has a different impact general trade ; 3 . commodity structure , the impact of the reform of exchange rate changes before and after there was a marked difference ; lagged regression model vector auto regression model ARDL-ECM model is reformed the exchange rate on trade the impact presented the \This analysis shows that the RMB exchange rate changes on trade does exist a certain impact of proposed recommendations at the end of this article .

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade
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