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Correlation of the debt crisis and currency crisis

Author: LinHe
Tutor: HuRongHua
School: Fudan University
Course: World economy
Keywords: Sovereign debt crisis Debt default Depreciate Monetary crisis
CLC: F821;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 884
Quote: 1
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Abstract


In the end of 2009, the outbreak of the Greek sovereign debt crisis, and then quickly spread to the euro zone several other highly indebted countries such as Spain, Ireland, Portugal. A number of countries in the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis led to market concerns of a currency crisis for the euro area will. Between the debt crisis and the currency crisis there? If any relationship with how kind of relationship? This article is based on the study of the above questions, start. Previous literature most of the debt crisis and currency crisis as a separate phenomenon, and has made many achievements. Debt crisis and currency crises in real life symbiotic phenomenon is more common, however, due to link the two together research literature rarely, we both have how to contact is not yet clear. In order to delve into the relationship between the two, the basis of existing research at home and abroad to establish a theoretical model on government financing options, the government's breach of contract and debt monetization behavior included in the model were analyzed. Studied theoretically the complementary relationship between the debt crisis and currency crises and alternative relationships. In order to test the correlation between the debt crisis and the currency crisis in the real life, selected years 1977-2005 data of 45 developing countries the debt crisis and currency crisis data as a sample, using Eviews software, Probit model data econometric analysis. The analysis found that the debt crisis and currency crisis has a significant positive correlation, indicating the occurrence of the debt crisis will significantly increase the probability of occurrence of a currency crisis, currency crises will also be a significant increase in the probability of occurrence of the debt crisis. In addition, we also found the lag order after the currency crisis variable its debt crisis has a significant impact, but the lag order of the variables of the debt crisis of its currency crisis had no significant effect. The innovation of this paper is that studies have shown that there is a clear positive correlation between the debt crisis and currency crisis. The debt crisis and currency crisis, from the theoretical and empirical aspects of a comprehensive and in-depth analysis. These analyzes will deepen people's understanding of the correlation between the debt crisis and the currency crisis, also has a positive role in guiding people in real life to prevent the occurrence of the debt crisis and currency crisis. The analysis of the text in the context of the current European debt crisis, the possibility of a currency crisis in the euro area is the example of the guiding role.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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