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University Loan Risk Early Warning Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Author: PengChong
Tutor: LiuJing
School: Yunnan University of Finance
Course: Accounting
Keywords: Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation University Loan Risk Warning Model
CLC: G647.5;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 490
Quote: 1
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Abstract


In recent years, higher education in China has been rapid development. Massive college debt while schools, and the rapid expansion of the loan risk emerged, huge debt has become an important factor restricting the development of universities, college loan risk theory to explore the increasingly active. Early warning research as an important element of the college loan risk research, academia in college loans scale control, early warning indicators designed early warning methods have had some success, but there are many issues worthy of further study. Firstly, start from the existing financial risk early warning methods, analysis and comparison of the shortcomings of the existing financial risk early warning methods and models, and then introduced the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and proposed a method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation preliminary college loan risk warning ideas. On University Loan Risk warning related to the concept as well as the theory of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and on this basis adaptive fuzzy comprehensive evaluation applied to college loans risk warning. Again, college loan risk early warning indicator system was designed under the guidance of the design principles of the early warning indicators, and to the the comprehensive institutions directly under the Ministry of Education as the basis of the sample correlation test screening of early warning indicators, followed by the use of expert advice combination of analytic hierarchy process method of screening indicator weights assignment, in principle to build a college loan risk fuzzy evaluation model based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Finally, two comprehensive institutions directly under the Ministry of Education, for example, comparative analysis, and recommendations to resolve the current college loan risk and countermeasures. This paper based on the above study the following conclusions: first, college loan risk warning there are imperfections, there is a large research and development space in terms of the index selection or evaluation method. Second, college loan risk early warning indicator system design from the three aspects of the extent of the liabilities, the ability to pay, and funds management. Third, select a consulting experts and Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine the weights of the evaluation, the combination of quantitative and qualitative research methods, this method simple evaluation process, the evaluation of short time, to deeply listen to expert opinion, can improve the accuracy of the forecast. Fourth, based on the principle of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to build the college loan risk early warning model and application model empirical analysis of two comprehensive institutions directly under the Ministry of Education, and the results prove that the early warning model is scientific and effective.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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