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Epidemic early warning and space technology evaluation model

Author: LaiShengJie
Tutor: YangWeiZhong
School: Disease Control and Prevention Center
Course: Epidemiology and Biostatistics,
Keywords: Infectious disease Automatic warning Space-time model Evaluate
CLC: R181.8
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 154
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Abstract


Background 2004 network report of infectious diseases system startup, so that our reporting of infectious diseases has undergone a qualitative leap. To take full advantage of monitoring information resources to achieve spatial clustering of cases detected early warning, Chinese Center for Disease Control warning technology in time model based on the study of infectious diseases temporal model further warning technology research, and in April 21, 2008 in 20 provinces 221 pilot counties (district) launched a one-year automatic warning of infectious diseases (temporal model) pilot. Therefore, in order to modify and improve the space-time model warning technology, complete sets of infectious diseases is urgently needed to establish temporal model evaluation index system of early warning systems, the effect of the pilot to carry out assessments and allow space for the disease early warning technology improvements provide a scientific basis and recommendations. Objective 1. Explore the establishment of infectious automatic warning (space-time model) system evaluation index system. (2) Results of the pilot through space-time model and user surveys, comprehensive evaluation model of early warning and space effect, space-time model for the improvement of early warning technology to provide scientific basis and recommendations. Materials and Methods 1. Pilot study collected data collection temporal model pilot areas warning data, disease surveillance data and related emergencies and information about technical material. 2 warning evaluation index system and early warning systems through literature review data characteristics analysis, preliminary evaluation framework to build warning; approach through expert advice from experts on the evaluation framework and indicators to judge the content and propose amendments and recommendations, in order to establish from infectious disease early warning system evaluation index system. 3 warning users of the pilot survey area CDC survey conducted early warning system users, analyze user warning model usage for early warning timeliness, sensitivity, false-positive rate the practical application of space-time model of evaluation of the effectiveness and collect related issues and recommendations. 4 Evaluation of space-time model warning the pilot areas in the understanding of the relevant incident reporting based on the use of space-time model constructed epidemic warning technology evaluation index system and user survey data, descriptive analysis of the number of warning signals in response to treatment and its results , focusing on space-time model of early warning analysis and evaluation of efficacy, compared with the time model to further evaluate the effect temporal model of early warning. Findings and conclusions 1. Spatiotemporal model pilot operation of the pilot areas most timely warning signal response processing. After a trial run, infectious disease warning (space-time model) stability of the system is greatly improved, but still needs further improvement. 2 warning function space model (1) warning timeliness timely warning on the whole space-time model is better, and better than the time model, especially for analyzing the data by monitoring the events, with good timeliness, can help to promote disease control agencies detected earlier outbreak / epidemic event, but for medical institutions, schools and other units report directly to the events, warning in a timely manner to be further improved. (2) the accuracy of the overall early warning, early warning and space model has better accuracy. Warning sensitivity is very high, the evaluation of 67 incidents were all warning, more sensitive than time model; pairs generally have high specificity, but the need to further improve the specificity of individual diseases; although both high sensitivity and specificity , but by the impact of existing evaluation fewer events, the positive predictive value of the space-time model is low, but better than the time model. Further research needs to carve different diseases warning effectiveness evaluation model and parameter settings. (3) ability to detect temporal model of spatial aggregation through space to detect clusters of cases of actual emergencies region and has a high incidence of regional consistency, and space exploration model of geographic information helps warning signal analysis. (4) analysis of early warning percentile highest warning alert signals mainly in the P80 percentile and above. Emergency first warning did not P5. The following warning signal, indicating that without P5. The following probe warning, warning does not reduce the sensitivity. (5) continuous warning situation analysis of the current model of continuous space-time warning signal excluded methods played a role, but there are still a large proportion of repeated warnings, continuous warning shall be removed to further improve programs to reduce the number of repeated warning signals. 3 Evaluation Index System of early warning system to establish early warning systems temporal model evaluation system model in time and space through the analysis and evaluation of the pilot the use of effects, indicating feasibility; the index system of evaluation results obtained with the user survey results more consistent model for the improvement and promotion of space applications to provide a scientific basis. In summary, during the pilot model of early warning signals temporal response processing in a timely manner, on the whole reflects better warning effect, has a good early warning timeliness, sensitivity, specificity, and space exploration capabilities to help early detection of infectious disease outbreaks, popular event, but the positive predictive value of early warning model is low. In the next study, the research can be used to establish the evaluation index system of early warning system of infectious diseases, research and refinement of different regions, different parameter settings and their early warning infectious disease early warning function, in-depth analysis of the reasons for the low positive predictive value, continuous improvement of early warning removed programs, and continuously improve the effectiveness of early warning systems, to achieve temporal model application.

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CLC: > Medicine, health > Preventive Medicine,Health > Epidemiology and Prevention of Disease > Epidemiology of the basic theory and methods > Outbreak management
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