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Real options theory in the real estate development land reserves Decision Research

Author: SunXin
Tutor: SuJingQin
School: Dalian University of Technology
Course: Business Administration
Keywords: Real Options Investment decisions Real Estate Development Land reserves
CLC: F293.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2005
Downloads: 372
Quote: 7
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Abstract


All along, the traditional method of investment decisions (eg: net present value method, internal rate of return method, payback) is a major investment decision-making tool makers. In a rapidly changing market economy, more and more economic phenomena can not use these traditional investment decision-making tools to explain the calculation results and judgment. These are the traditional investment decision-making tool because there are some unavoidable weaknesses, such as: traditional investment decision-making methods require specific future cash flow forecast, and forecast accuracy is not guaranteed; ignored policymakers management flexibility The value so. And be able to compensate for these weaknesses another Decision - real option calculation method, we get more and more recognition and applications. Real options theory is currently a hot option theory circles, cutting-edge topics, but our research for the real options theory relatively late, have not formed a systematic and comprehensive theoretical system. This paper attempts to study the theory of real options, apply it to a specific areas: real estate development land bank decisions. Real estate company and then choose the best time to buy land for development is a very typical project with real options investment decisions, this article aims to explain the theory and relevant case specific basis, to compare their methods with the advantages of traditional investment decisions, discusses In this field of application of its significance and try to solve the problem of specific investment decisions. This paper describes results of previous studies comprehensive and detailed analysis of its real estate development land bank Decision feasibility, and then verify the results of specific cases of real options method validity and accuracy. Through this research shows that real options approach traditional decision-making methods to make up for some shortcomings, some uncertainty for decision-makers can play a large and great flexibility in the project is of great significance, we can get a more realistic basis for decision making. Meanwhile, the real options approach in specific applications by many complicated mathematical theory, the theory is not in the application itself very well. For theorists, should focus its applied research; apply real options theory for decision-makers should focus on the concept of real options as a tool to solve problems, rather than rigidly adhere to the specific details of the calculation.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban Economics and Management > The real estate economy
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