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The Research on the Impact Factors of Divorce Rates in China

Author: ChengMingMing
Tutor: BaiZhongEn
School: Tsinghua University
Course: Applied Economics
Keywords: divorce rate working pressure education level marriage quality birth control
CLC: C913.1
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 1356
Quote: 2
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Abstract

In recent years, the divorce rate in China has presented an increasing trend and relatively apparent regional disparity, which cause some adverse impacts on people’s life. This problem has elicited more and more attention. Although the research of marriage condition and quality has a history as long as eighty years in foreign countries, China is only on the starting step for such research. On the foundation of domestic and international literature review and analysis of the current marriage market in China, we find out that the current divorce rate is increasing year by year significantly, the high divorce rate problem in northeast countries is extremely severe, at the first marriage age is extending, the group of unmarried people order than 15 years old is enlarging, gender ratio becomes imbalanced, and there is a flourish and commercialized trend of matchmaking industry. The cross-sectional data in our empirical study is mainly from the 2005 "national 1% population sample survey data" including the data of 31 provinces, cities, municipalities and autonomous regions in China; "China Statistical Yearbook" and the "Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook" in 2006. The panel data is mainly from "China Statistical Yearbook" from 1981 to 2009; "China Population Statistics Yearbook" from 1988 to 2006; "Statistical Yearbook of China’s population and employment" from 2007 to 2009; "China civil administration Statistical Yearbook" from 1990 to 2009 (including data of 27 years from 1982 to 2008) and so on. In this paper, we set up a theoretical and an empirical model. We apply correlation analysis, multiple linear regression models in cross-sectional data analysis, and we use fixed effects model, random effects model, Hausman testing and FGLS test in panel data analysis. We also use stability testing to analyze relevant factors on divorce rate. In the research, we focus on the increasing trend of divorce rate and regional disparities, in order to find out the impact factors of China’s divorce rate, for solving the problem in a large extent and reduce the negative impact of the high divorce rate on people’s lives, and to provide foundation for policy decision makers. In the empirical study, our conclusion is: The more urban households are; the less rural households are; to lower the social burden coefficient; shorten the illiteracy gap between the male and female; to unleash work burden for the female; strengthen regulation to the legal system and supervision system of divorce; to encourage people to get married at a proper age, all of which will be effective on lowering the divorce rate in urban and rural China. Finally, we draw some policy implications from empirical study: if we can strengthen the supervision to the job market, release the work pressure of people especially for the female; to further improve legal frames and regulations system on divorce; to protect and enhance residents’well-being; take some policies to balance the gender ratio; adjust the current family birth control policy, and to choose the policy according to local situation, all of which may slow down the divorce rate in China, and can play an active role for promoting marriage and family stability.

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