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An Empirical Research of Efficiency and Bubbles in Beijing Real Estate Market

Author: ZhaoZiZuo
Tutor: FuXing
School: Capital University of Economics
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: Real Estate Market Market Efficiency Foam Cointegration
CLC: F293.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2006
Downloads: 1374
Quote: 5
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Abstract


Real estate in the whole economic system belonging to the pilot, basic industries, in a dominant industry position. The real estate industry with its strong correlation, lead coefficient characteristics, become a pillar industry to promote economic growth. While real estate prices are the focus of attention of ordinary people, price is beyond the capacity of the masses, and its tendency to fluctuate, is worthy of study; rising real estate prices, increasing the potential risk of the vacant area of ??concern. Based on the above considerations, the use of the index for housing Beijing Beijing real estate market for a weakly efficient testing, while also conducted on the Beijing office market bubble test. Modern economics is usually defined as the asset price bubble of its deviation from the fundamental value of persistence. Bubble economy began to boom usually end the crisis, the result is an asset price distortions in resource allocation errors, thereby endangering the financial system and the economy's healthy development. How to understand the effectiveness of both the real estate market for companies, families and individuals are of great significance. This article first theory of market efficiency and foam were reviewed, focusing on the definition of market efficiency and foam as well as some commonly used test methods, as well as information on the measure of the real estate bubble of some commonly used indicators such as vacancy rates, the price earnings ratio. This is also the second chapter on the validity and abroad on the real estate market bubble research literature on the domestic real estate bubble of the research literature and part of stock market efficiency literature reviewed. In Chapter III The recent development of real estate market in Beijing were analyzed, focusing on price movements and price earnings ratio on. Utilization rates rise and the ratio of GDP growth and other indicators to determine whether the detected Beijing current existence and extent of the real estate bubble. As a key part of the chapter were used unit root test and serial correlation test carried out on the Beijing real estate market is weakly efficient test to explore Beijing housing trend of the situation over the years, and found that Beijing real estate market in general has reached a weak effect. Then they were utilized herein unit root and cointegration methods, and set on the Beijing office market test method for a bubble test and found that Beijing office market bubble.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban Economics and Management > The real estate economy
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