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U.S. subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, spread from the U.S. financial sector to the real economy of the United States, and the harmful effects of the global economy. Subprime mortgage crisis caused a slowdown in the economic growth of the United States, the European Union, as well as emerging market countries, along with global inflation, resulting in a far-reaching impact on the global economic outlook for the next few years. But also to China in the credit risk management sounded the alarm. In the modern financial system, commercial banks as the main intermediary in financial transactions, a barometer of a country's economic situation, played a pivotal role in reducing economic risks and uncertainties, and to ensure the smooth operation of the national economy. Commercial banks in the operation itself responsible for various types of risks, including: credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, management risk, capital risk and policy risk. Among them, the credit risk is caused due to customer default risk. It is the most important risk that must be faced in the process of commercial bank management. Credit risk ranging from commercial bank loans, bond investment, balance sheet activities, as well as credit derivatives financial services and other commercial banks operating activities in many areas. For China's commercial banks, corporate lending business of its operating assets, commercial banks in most of the financial assets of the enterprise loans, loan interest and principal recovery of credit risk of loans of commercial banks Credit risk is the most important component. However, due to the traditional planned economy mode, witch hunt, banks and enterprises, regardless of the impact of the credit activities, the formation of a large number of non-performing loans of commercial banks in China, although with a large number of step-by-step completion of the reform of China's commercial banks, commercial banks non-performing assets to be stripped, but the credit risk management of commercial banks in China is still relatively backward, and rent-seeking behavior still exists in the corporate lending process, with the continuous expansion of banking operations and the size of credit, commercial banks are subject to the credit risk continues to increase, and thus the credit risk management has become the core content of the bank management. Therefore, credit risk characteristics, the establishment of credit risk models to measure credit risk, accurate quantitative analysis of the credit risk faced by the commercial banks, as well as how to implement effective credit risk management measures of the business involving credit products, commercial banks to improve the management level, to reduce the credit risk of the most basic and most pressing requirements. The listed company is an important object of the commercial bank credit, research credit risk characteristics listed companies, predict and measure the credit risk of commercial banks, investors and capital market regulators are of great significance. Although China's securities market has more stringent access restrictions on the companies listed, the better the overall quality of listed companies, but some of the company's financial position will gradually deteriorate due to changes in the capacity of the company's management, as well as industry boom status macroeconomic factors, credit risk and market risk would rise, debt default or company to withdraw from a huge loss to the creditors and investors may eventually occur. Especially with the increase in the number of listed companies and regulatory authorities to improve equity financing requirements, listed companies no longer be able to rely on equity financing, but gradually began to increase the proportion of debt financing. However, with the increase in total liabilities of listed companies, the event of the company defaulting on its debt is gradually increased, and the enormous losses caused by the breach of listed companies tend to creditors and investors. For listed companies structure and the special nature of the market environment, specializing in the credit standing of the listed company, to identify and measure the credit risk of listed companies, commercial banks, investors and capital market regulators to develop lending policies, select the portfolio have a major role in the management and standardize the market. As China's listed companies is the lack of conditions for the credit risk measurement model can monitor and transactions associated with each other, brought a great deal of distress to the credit risk management. Learn from international advanced credit risk management techniques and methods, the establishment of credit risk measurement models and methods suitable for China's national conditions, is an important topic facing the credit risk managers. It is in this context, this paper studies the credit risk measurement of listed companies in China. Based on this, we use a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods of theoretical analysis and empirical testing of credit risk measurement model. This paper first introduces credit risk, credit risk metrics, credit risk measurement models and credit risk management concept, the basic role of credit risk measurement in the credit risk management; Second, focusing on several modern measurement model main content, features, and advantages and disadvantages, and they are from two aspects of the theory and applicability detailed comparison, so as to arrive: KMV model is more suitable for measuring the credit risk of listed companies in China; Next, the 2008 15 home ST listed companies and the corresponding 15 non-ST listed companies from 2005 to 2007 on the application of the KMV model made empirical analysis. The empirical results show that shares of listed companies in China generally rose sharply, the value of equity inflated affect the validity of the KMV model in China, but exclude the impact of China's stock market split share structure reform and sustained economic growth, interpretation of the model is still valid; Finally, the departure from the listed companies is relatively stable financial index system, build a logistic model for credit risk analysis for listed companies in China, with 30 listed companies as a test sample, test the regression model, achieved a higher prediction accuracy, the study also found that the deterioration of the solvency, management capability and profitability is the main produce of the credit crisis, thus improving the management level and profitability of listed companies to avoid the company into a credit crisis the key. The pursuit of innovation in this article are: first, the coexistence of the dual structure of China's outstanding shares and non-tradable shares, and in 2007, China's stock market boom, stock prices generally rose sharply reality, KMV model in China's listed companies credit risk measure on the test. KMV model is a \. Second, a company listed on the use of a relatively stable financial indicators system, through a variety of test screened out the final index build a logistic model for credit risk analysis for listed companies in China, the traditional \the effectiveness of the financial position, with the KMV model in contrast. The shortcomings: first, because of the limited computing power, we select only 30 listed companies as the research object, relative to the number of listed companies in China is very small, it is difficult to get a general sense of law and results need to build a large sample data to measure the credit risk of listed companies in China to make. Second, a measure of the credit risk of listed companies, this article is just to make a very small part, and a bit simple processing model. Distance measurement and analysis of the credit risk of default of this paper limited to listed companies, so only get the theoretical probability of default of the listed companies, further research is needed for the empirical probability of default and the actual function of the distance to default alluding to the relationship, of course, requires a lot of data and disclosure of banks' credit quality of listed companies. Third, limited to credit risk measurement study of listed companies, the credit risk of non-listed companies is very large areas, for banks, credit risk of non-listed companies have a very strong practical significance, can be used for the establishment of non-listed companies lending decisions, as well as China's commercial banks risk control system.
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