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Monte Carlo Simulation Based Voyage Decision Risk Analysis and Implementation

Author: YangZhao
Tutor: HuZhengHua
School: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Ocean Shipping Voyage Decision Monte Carlo Simulation Risk Analysis
CLC: U692
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 128
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Voyage decision is a very important part in the transportation management of shippingenterprises. Under the influence of the world economy, international trade, politics and natural factors,it will relate to a great deal of sophisticated and variable factors to make voyage decision. Using theseuncertain factors to evaluate the economic indicator and decide whether the voyage is available isrisky. Therefore, before voyage decision, not only need to evaluate the economic efficiency of voyage,but analyze the risk of economic evaluation of voyage. As a result, analyzing the risk of voyagedecision based on economic evaluation of voyage reduces the risk economic losses, so hasmomentous significance.This paper pays great attention on the risk analysis of economic evaluation of voyage, byapplying Monte Carlo to voyage decision. At first, analyze the business processes of ocean shippingenterprises, then study out the model for evaluating voyage and take the voyage rate of return as theindicator for risk analysis. Secondly, analyze the sensitivity of uncertain factors in voyage decision,and determine the principal risk factors, then figure out the probability distributions of them usinghistory data and experience. Thirdly, generate random numbers for principal risk factors and bringthem to the model of the voyage rate of return, thus simulate the random sampling of risk analysisindicator. At last, analyze the distribution character of the Radom sampling of the voyage rate ofreturn, and then figure up the risk of the evaluation sheme of voyage. Morever, the thesis designs thealgorithm of voyage decision and prototype system of rsik analysis, then integrates the MC-basedvoyage decision risk analysis method and pratical application of Uniwell (H.K.) Company and thecalculation result prove that the method proposed in the thesis is useful.Research of this subject provides ocean shipping enterprises like Uniwell (H.K.) with scientificvoyage decision risk analysis method which helps to reduce their poor decisions and economic lossesin today’s competitive business environment. Generally, the research achievement has importanttheoretical significance and practical value.

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