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The Analysis and Precaution of Risk in RenMinBi’s Internationalization

Author: ShiYingHui
Tutor: ChenZhiZhou
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course: Political Economics
Keywords: International currency RMB internationalization Risk Analysis Risk prevention
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 697
Quote: 1
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Abstract


As China's economic strength and overall national strength, especially in the share of international trade and continually improve the RMB in the international community increasingly high degree of acceptance in some neighboring countries and even local residents to become hard currency. 1997 Asian financial crisis, the Chinese government promised to \In the United States subprime mortgage crisis, China took the lead out of the financial crisis, the international community for the Chinese economy, while for the internationalization of the RMB increasing attention. July 2008, the State Council approved the establishment of People's Bank of China has according to the process of internationalization of the RMB RMB offshore market development functions of the Secretary of the exchange rate, which is first mentioned in official documents, internationalization of the RMB, has important historical significance. In December, the Central Bank and the Bank of Korea was signed to provide liquidity support for the 180 billion yuan of bilateral currency swap agreements, currency swap between the two countries through mutually provide short-term liquidity support for domestic commercial banks in the other branch structure provides financing facility, and promote bilateral trade development. This will enable the yuan for the first time in an official gesture to go abroad. Shortly thereafter, the State Council executive meeting decided that the Yangtze River Delta region of Guangdong and Hong Kong and Macao regions, Guangxi and Yunnan and ASEAN trade in goods in RMB settlement pilot; Subsequently, China and Malaysia, Belarus, Indonesia, Mongolia, Vietnam, Myanmar and other Asian neighboring countries signed a number of bilateral currency swap agreements with bilateral currency settlement; February 2009, People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Argentina signed a 70 billion yuan equivalent of RMB currency swap framework agreement, which is by far the history of China and Latin American countries the largest financial transactions. Under the framework agreement, the Argentine goods imported from China can use renminbi, without having to use the U.S. dollar as an intermediary currency transactions; April 2009, the State Council decided in Shanghai and four cities in Guangdong province, cross-border trade, the RMB settlement of the pilot; to May 2010, People's Bank of China RMB trade settlement pilot program to 14 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) to expand, including Beijing, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Hubei, Guangxi, Hainan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan. Chinese government over a series of initiatives that the economic globalization and integration continue to promote the conditions, with the degree of internationalization of China's participation in the deepening internationalization of the RMB has become an inevitable trend. Thus, if before 2008, RMB internationalization is a problem in our country is still in the academic, theoretical discussion of the topic areas, then the sub-prime crisis, especially in 2009, the People's Bank of China has been clearly reflected in a number of initiatives RMB internationalization substantial progress has already begun. Therefore, actively promote the process of internationalization of natural evolution, promoting China's integration into the world at the same time, we must clearly understand: the internationalization of RMB on China's economic development advantages and disadvantages, if mishandled, crisis, not only can not be obtained by the internationalization of the RMB brings a number of benefits, but also threaten the health or even interrupt rapid growth of China's economy. Thus, in-depth study of the process of internationalization of the RMB risks and take positive and effective preventive measures, has become an urgent need for research. Domestic and foreign scholars for RMB internationalization issues have been studied in depth, and they passed a different perspective on issues of internationalization of the RMB, for example, from the perspective of costs and benefits, the conditions of RMB internationalization fit, RMB internationalization will face many dilemmas, RMB internationalization path selection, RMB internationalization of the financial sector, the banking sector and so on. Although some specific issues have slightly different scholars still differences, but for the internationalization of the RMB to bring to China seigniorage revenue, reduce trade foreign exchange risk, to change the international financial system, to enhance China's international status, etc., will have significant benefits who agree with the basic point of view is, while also recommends that the Government take action to actively promote the internationalization of RMB. However, the internationalization of the RMB is not the sheer Gabriel harmless, so rich in the above article is based on research results, based on international monetary theory, Marxist political economy in which the theoretical discussion of the international monetary, financial deepening theory From international currency will face risk perspective, analyzes the process of internationalization of the RMB in advance which will encounter risks and propose appropriate policy recommendations. Full papers are divided into a total of five chapters, the first chapter is an introduction part, mainly from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the Chinese government and the Chinese People's Bank of actively taking a number of initiatives to promote the yuan currency swap with numerous countries and trade settlement currency phenomena such as research background, draw significance of this study, that is, from the perspective of risk, against the RMB in its process of internationalization will encounter risk analysis, and propose appropriate policy recommendations in order to ensure the smooth progress of RMB internationalization . Turn on the RMB internationalization and currency internationalization issues related to the academic research finishing, making literature review and summary of the full text of the overall macroeconomic framework and the chapters outline, while the research methods, research innovation and research difficult to conclude. The second chapter is the theoretical basis of this paper introduces the meaning of international currency, and then come to the internationalization of RMB connotation, an international currency should have the condition, the Marxist political economics, financial deepening theory, Mundell The impossible triangle theory, the optimum currency area theory briefly combed for subsequent expand this theoretical groundwork to do. The third chapter is from the perspective of macro currency of a country will face the risk of international classification, ie, be a country's exchange rate policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and a country's economy, adversely affect the financial system, and by constructing appropriate macroeconomic model, the formation mechanism of various risk analysis. Chapter IV, that the first few chapters, based on a detailed analysis of the process of internationalization of the RMB will encounter a variety of risks, for example, after the internationalization of the RMB will face large-scale capital out of the situation, and thus the central bank effectiveness of monetary policy, the independence of a challenge; same time, because our current capital and financial account yet achieved full convertibility of the RMB internationalization achieved after the full convertibility of the capital account, which would formulation of monetary policy , exchange rate stability and currency substitution, etc. enormous risks; moreover yuan to maintain international, must have the appropriate foreign military presence and foreign aid, which would pose a risk to our country's fiscal policy. Chapter V, based on the risk analysis, in order to ensure the smooth process of RMB internationalization make appropriate recommendations to carry out measures that we must first build a comprehensive risk control system, using the system, dynamic approach to all financial institutions, risk factors and All business units and their associated risk control, in order to reduce the uncertainty of the project process. Secondly, from the continued economic health and sustainable development, to build sustainable economic growth to enable traders to maintain confidence in the RMB;, and by deepening the financial system, fostering a competitive financial institutions and other aspects of the body improve the financial system, building a highly developed and open renminbi financial markets; while building related systems environment, reduce the yuan and other currencies conflicts. Again, from the Asian currencies to strengthen cooperation and promote the deepening of the internationalization of RMB trade settlement and other relevant policies for the improvement of risk prevention. Finally, from the optimization of the central bank monetary policy intermediate target selection, as well as the equilibrium exchange rate concept built from the perspective of monetary policy and foreign exchange management, and other aspects of prevention in promoting the process of internationalization of the RMB will face the risk of internationalization of the RMB in order to ensure the smooth proceed.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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