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Early-warning of Financial Crisis in China’s Real Estate Company for Empirical Analysis

Author: GuoXinNing
Tutor: HuangJuan
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course: Accounting
Keywords: The real estate industry Financial risk Financial early warning
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 1077
Quote: 3
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Abstract

Financial risk early warning research not only has important theoretical significance, but also has strong application value. Relative to the foreign and domestic research started late, existing research-oriented industry and enterprises, different industries in real life there is a big difference in the management of the operations, and accordingly reflected in corporate financial data also bound to reflect the different characteristics of each. This article will focus in-depth study of real estate financial risk early warning system chose the industry mainly because of the recent years, with the combined effects of the urbanization process in China, the housing system reform, as well as the improvement of residents' income and other factors, the real estate industry, the rapid development of The rising rate of contribution to the national economy. With the continuous expansion of the real estate price bubble and by the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States since 2007, the government and financial institutions to increase regulation of the real estate industry, real estate companies are constantly challenging financial market environment, positive adjust the financial structure to deal with the financial risks, avoid capital strand breaks, the financial crisis occurred. Based on this, a real estate financial risk early warning, not only for businesses, countries and financial institutions and other related interests are very necessary. Research purposes although only 20 years of development history, but the strong housing demand and sustained and rapid economic development, the real estate industry to become a high-growth, high-return and high-risk industry. China is in the stage of economic starting from the health and direction of the real estate industry since 2007, due to the impact of the international financial crisis and the national macro-control factors, China's real estate industry into a consolidation phase, but the consumption of housing demand is only temporary hidden rigid demand still exists, which makes our prices began to decline in the face of the real estate industry, volume shrinkage, austerity policies under financial pressure and other risk factors in the case, it is faced with great opportunities for development, market survival of the fittest to survive, to enter another opportunity for development decisions faced by each enterprise, where the financial risk is an important aspect of enterprise risk. If the business is unable to raise the funds needed for development, unable to pay its debts as they become due will be facing the risk of bankruptcy and liquidation. Financial risk early warning system from within the real estate business, the financial risk in the real estate business management process revealed the source to prevent the occurrence of the financial crisis and reduce the resulting losses, from this perspective, this study has certain practical significance. With corporate financial early warning research, to build China's real estate financial risk early warning model to help real estate companies to understand the changes in its financial position, improve the ability to prevent risks, avoid capital strand breaks caused by the stagnation of the project, and take timely and effective measures to avoid open or to resolve the financial crisis that may occur; majority of investors can make use of the early warning model analysis of the financial condition of the real estate company, to achieve scientific investment to avoid risks to avoid losses; financial institutions through early warning model of a real estate company credit assessment and loan or pledge loan control, to avoid the risk of loans, in order to enhance the security of the development of the national economy as a whole run; audit can determine the scope of the audit, the development of the necessary audit procedures, to improve their ability to assess and reduce audit risk; finally ready to find \\'The main content and viewpoint of the first part of the introduction, to explore the background, purpose and method of this article. Financial risk warning has been research oriented all industries and businesses, the management of the operations of the different industries in the real life there is a big difference, is also reflected in corporate financial data is bound to reflect the different characteristics of each. The real estate industry is a pillar of our national economy, the main factors affecting the stability of financial markets, the industry is also closely linked with people's lives, the dramatic fluctuations will cause great harm to the national economy, and also to the financial markets caused by a series of crises. This will combine the characteristics of the real estate industry, by means of enterprise financial early warning research, study the financial risks faced by the real estate industry, further empirical analysis of financial risk early warning on China's real estate industry. In this paper, a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical test, the point of view of the theory is applied to the empirical analysis, the financial risk early warning research on China's real estate industry has scientific and convincing. The second part of the literature review, an overview of domestic and international research on the financial risk early warning. Abroad on financial risk assessment and early warning research has long been started relatively late compared with foreign countries, about the start of the study time. Study abroad is a gradual deepening of the process, initially only select the most representative of a single financial variable to determine the risk of corporate finance, to the more significant financial variables as decision index build multiple discriminant model used to evaluate corporate financial risk. With a wide range of statistics and computer applications, more and more scholars use statistical methods to build more complex and accurate model. Some scholars have also committed to mining triggered the financial risk to establish and improve the analysis of neural network dynamic monitoring of corporate financial risk early warning model simulate the human brain running path with the concern of psychology and market participants irrational factors The deeper reason, the introduction of non-financial indicators and qualitative factors. Domestic foreign research analysis, combined with China's actual situation, and do not form a system for ST companies listed on non-listed companies because the data is difficult to obtain considerably less studied. The theoretical analysis of the third part of the real estate industry, the financial risk warning, this chapter mainly analyzes the meaning and causes of the basic characteristics of China's real estate industry and its financial risk on the warning of the reality of the financial risks of the real estate industry and feasibility. The one hand, the real estate industry by policy factors, invested a large amount of a high rate of return, and has a high correlation with the more than 20 industries, the financial risk early warning practical significance; corporate crisis management theory, shocking decision theory, corporate diagnostic theory of early warning research provides a theoretical basis the common financial early warning model provides a useful tool for the study, to select financial variables to build the financial risk early warning model can effectively combine the characteristics of China's real estate industry. Fourth part of the empirical analysis of the financial risk early warning of China's real estate industry, including sample and variable selection, the proposed research hypotheses, descriptive statistics of selected variables, select the variables significant impact on the financial risk. By T-test of 25 financial indicators initially selected 11 representative indicators from the initial screening of the indicators, the most influential factor is the solvency of the financial risk of the real estate industry, cash flow indicators of real estate the role of industry financial risk is not very clear. Then selected 11 variables to factor analysis, factor analysis extracted four main factors as new variables, build the Logistic model of China's real estate industry, the financial risk early warning, which extracted four main factors are corporate debt service capacity, profitability, development capacity and operating capacity. Finally, the use of the industry data inspection accuracy and applicability of the model, come Logistic model crisis in the first two years of the forecast accuracy of 75%, occurred in the crisis year of early warning accuracy rate of 91.67%, the time from the crisis longer, the greater the difficulty and the error rate of the prediction. Part V Conclusion and outlook for the analysis of financial indicators essentially reflect all aspects of the company's financial position, and select the data listed companies publicly disclose audited financial report, has a certain practicality. Process and results of the above study, the solvency of the real estate listing of the company's financial risk the most influential factor, the rational planning financial structure, pay attention to the changes in the financial structure. Third, the main contribution insufficient main contribution of this paper is to combine the characteristics of China's real estate industry, the use of corporate financial risk early warning model, build the evaluation model is suitable for China's real estate industry, warning for all enterprises subdivided into various industries have targeted research, the future trends of the early warning research, make research results more application value. With the introduction of a number of government policies, the real estate industry will be a historic adjustment and rational return, financial risk early warning for the real estate industry is particularly important, not only for businesses, governments and investors have a strong value. The drawback is that this paper is mainly from the point of view of the micro-economic forth of an industry, in terms of the impact of macro-economic level, such as a new tax, currency, introduction of fiscal policy may lead to adjustment of the layout of the entire industry and enterprise strategy, thus affecting the micro-economic level, do consider the impact of macroeconomic policies on financial risk. In addition, the paper mainly using financial data to build an early warning model, do consider the non-financial data, mainly because of the imperfect theory taking into account the non-financial data applications, such as scholars of the ownership structure affect enterprise performance research findings are not consistent, there non-financial factors on the impact of the financial risk is obvious, such as the audit opinion, which of these factors is not too much involved.

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