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China's non- FDI capital flows of

Author: TaoChuan
Tutor: LuQianJin
School: Fudan University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Non- FDI capital Arbitrage Monetary Policy
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 227
Quote: 1
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Abstract

International capital flows has long been an open economy in a double-edged sword: on the one hand, long-term stability of international capital flows because of the ongoing market liquidity injected in promoting a country's economic stability and growth have played a positive effect; the other hand, short-term international capital in a country in large quantities would not only destabilize a country's financial markets, it will thus spread to the real economy, on the whole have a serious impact on the macroeconomic environment, the Asian financial crisis countries is a precedent. Among these, the international capital of non-FDI capital element is particularly noteworthy, as compared with FDI capital it has strong liquidity and more complex flow mechanism, and the meaning and content of its own with the hot money and capital flight has closely linked, so changes in non-FDI capital flows, and its external economic shocks, domestic financial markets and the real economy and the interaction between the effects of an open economy country macroeconomic regulation and control, to achieve macroeconomic stability, growth must face the problem. In recent years, with China's accession to the World Trade Organization and the full opening of the financial sector gradually, China's non-FDI capital flows and macroeconomic situation increasingly close ties. In 2003-2007 the growth rate of China's macroeconomic development and gradually take the heat in the process, China's non-FDI capital flows also from the previous reversal of inflows and outflows in the flow on the rise year by year, which led to the public for influx of hot money exacerbate domestic excess liquidity and asset price bubble concerns spawned. With the same time, China's monetary policy is also under tremendous pressure to accept a reversal of economic dual challenges of internal and external imbalances. Since 2008, as the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis caused by the spread of the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China's macro-economic or even recession therefore downside risks, this time in China since the non-FDI capital inflows slowed sharply, and in some time period showing a state of flow, which in turn causes people to evacuate the territory of international capital, capital flight concerns arise. Thus, China's non-FDI capital flows reflect not only the international capital flow situation in our country, but also in the external economic shocks and domestic macroeconomic and monetary policy influence among some inner relationships and mechanisms of action, this The analysis will undoubtedly help to better understand China's current economic problems faced by open and macro-control of the existence of constraints, and in-depth study of an open economy under the conditions of macroeconomic stability has reference. However, the existing literature for the elaboration of non-FDI capital are rare, focusing on China's non-FDI capital flows study also never appeared view of this, in a systematic framework for the development of our economy in recent years, international capital flows caused by the speculative capital arbitrage issues and monetary policy challenges to China's non-FDI capital flows for the study, combined with the author postgraduate master macro microeconomic theory and statistical measurement methods described in the specific non-FDI capital contains and influencing factors, based on the use of time series analysis method, on the one hand draw adaptive expectations theory, empirical measurement model by constructing two types of analytical interest rate, exchange rate and domestic asset prices and other factors for non-FDI capital flows degree, which reveals the non-FDI capital flows of the existence of arbitrage mechanism, hand draw credit concept of monetary policy theory and empirical analysis of non-FDI capital flows on the impact of monetary policy relations. According to both the theoretical analysis and empirical results, the paper finally settled in China in recent years the practice of monetary policy in a monetary policy within the framework of the credit outlook on China's monetary policy in the regulation of the way how to coordinate non-FDI capital flows and monetary policy do the relevant validity discussed. This paper is divided into five chapters, the first chapter is an introduction, a brief introduction status of this study, meaning, heavy and difficult issues, and related literature review. The second chapter defines the concept of non-FDI capital and its relationship with the difference between hot money and capital flight, and in the deconstruction of non-FDI capital on the basis of the components of the main influencing factors were analyzed. Chapter two econometric model was constructed using the data of empirical studies of China's non-FDI capital flows in the existence of arbitrage. CHAPTER credit concept of monetary policy reference theory, empirical analysis of China's non-FDI capital flows on the impact of monetary policy. Chapter V is the conclusion, based on the findings of the first four chapters, combined with China's monetary policy practice, this study explores the monetary policy for our country in the choice of policy instruments revelation.

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