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Study on the Interrelationship between Oil Futures and Oil Reserves

Author: ZhangAiHong
Tutor: GaoXinWei
School: China University of Petroleum
Course: Business Administration
Keywords: Oil Futures Oil reserves Cointegration Analysis
CLC: F426.22
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 412
Quote: 3
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Abstract


The oil futures market and oil reserves are generated after the oil crisis in the 1970s, the use of the oil futures market and the establishment of the oil reserves and effective measures for oil-consuming countries to withstand the risk of fluctuations in oil prices, oil supply crisis. With China's oil imports rose year by year, international oil prices continue to rise, frequent fluctuations, which our country is facing a huge risk of fluctuations in oil prices and additional costs. Inhibition of price fluctuations in the international primary means to hedge in the futures market and the reserve market buy low sell high. Both stable oil prices, but between the two kinds of relationships, how they interact and how to better regulate and reduce the impact of oil price fluctuations on the economic development of our country to become the research content. The article first introduces the meaning, features, functions and role of the oil futures and oil reserves, and a summary of the development status of the domestic and international oil futures and oil reserves; Second theory explains the relationship between the two, which include futures and unity reserves to stabilize oil prices and supply and demand, oil futures oil reserves, oil reserves, oil futures both linkage role; using regression analysis again selected U.S. commercial crude oil reserves, strategic crude oil reserves of two reserves variables, and were divided into two phases (1992-2002, 2003-2008) cointegration analysis and error correction model analysis, causality test, impulse response and forecast error variance decomposition analysis, through the introduction of the positions at the same time, further analysis of the crude oil futures relationship of prices, hedging the net position, net positions of hedge funds and commercial crude oil reserves; then around oil reserves - the oil futures market - oil futures - Oil futures prices clues to establish oil futures and oil reserves The development of the relational model, and China's oil futures and oil reserves make policy recommendations. This paper argues that hedge fund trading is not the reason for the fluctuations in international oil prices, commercial crude oil reserves have played an important role in regulating oil prices, but it is not realistic to simply relying on the reserves to adjust the price, must establish a futures market, so that there are reserves in the oil futures involving oil reserves in Futures Exchange, in order to better achieve the linkage between the two.

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