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Impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation empirical research

Author: ZhengZhiBin
Tutor: ZhangYuQin
School: Yunnan University of Finance
Course: International financial
Keywords: RMB exchange rate Inflation Pass-through effect Cointegration
CLC: F822.5;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 407
Quote: 0
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Abstract


As China's economic openness of the deepening of the RMB exchange rate in international trade plays an increasingly important role in the regulation of leverage , the scope of renminbi in the world economy is gradually expanding. Of the RMB exchange rate market has experienced three major reforms until 2005 to establish the basic sound of the import and export of comparison can respond to market conditions with reference to a basket of currencies , a single , managed floating exchange rate regime . 2005 to 2006 , the RMB exchange rate volatility and exchange rate reform began to appear before the more obvious compared to the volatility , volatility continues to increase faster. After 2007 , the RMB exchange rate fluctuations is more significant , and the appreciation of the main wave direction , have exceeded 8.0,7.5,7 other integer points and step into the 6.5 era, the record breaking since China adopted a floating exchange rate system , a new high . RMB exchange rate changes on import and export trade balance , the domestic price level , the international capital flows , foreign exchange reserves of the impact on a country's domestic employment, national income and the allocation of resources are present more significant impact , which is closely related with people's living standards the impact on the inflation rate . China in recent years , while the RMB exchange rate volatility increases the volatility of the domestic price level was also significantly increased, while the RMB exchange rate volatility can be delivered through a variety of ways to the domestic market , which led to changes in the price level , the paper by drawing at home and abroad the relationship between exchange rate and inflation research results and exchange rate pass-through effects theory, the RMB exchange rate and the inflation rate in order to conduct a more rigorous evidence -based cointegration analysis , the conclusion is: the statistical significance of the RMB exchange rate on the currency composition expansion occurring factor, but the CPI and exchange rate fluctuations affect a greater degree by their own , this effect increases with time to stabilize in the long term , indicating that the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar has a weak way of inflation guiding role. Finally the relationship between exchange rate and inflation rate response conclusions presented four policy recommendations : to strengthen the control of inflation , lower inflation expectations ; accelerate financial capital account liberalization , and actively develop the foreign exchange market ; actively reform the price adjustment mechanism ; strengthen monetary policy independence sex .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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