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Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Insurance Development on Economic Growth in China

Author: XiongLei
Tutor: ZhaoJinWen
School: Dongbei University of Finance
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Insurance Development Economic growth STR model Panel threshold effect model
CLC: F124;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 253
Quote: 0
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Abstract

The relationship between financial development and economic growth has been widespread concern in academic circles, despite the insurance industry an increasingly important role in financial intermediation, relatively little research about its impact on economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of China's life insurance and non-life insurance business, the main body of the insurance market is increasing, also gradually increase the effectiveness. As of December 31, 2009, the national premium income has increased from $ 4.6 billion in 1980 to 1.11373 trillion yuan. Risk management, financing and social management functions with the insurance industry as one of the important pillars of the modern financial system began to play an increasingly important role in the economic and social. Therefore, the issue of economic growth effect on the development of China's insurance has begun to attract the attention of the academic community. With the deepening of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis broke out in February 2007, the impact on China's economy, China's insurance industry is also facing a severe test. The face of the severe impact of the financial crisis, the effect of economic growth on insurance development study whether and how to give full play to the functions of risk management and loss compensation, and how to optimize the allocation of resources, and improve the efficiency of the use of funds for the insurance industry to promote our healthy and stable growth, prompting our steady and rapid weather the financial crisis has important theoretical significance and reality, should be taken seriously enough. Due to the differences in the theoretical models used in the literature, research methods and sample intervals, the effect of economic growth on insurance development study did not form a unanimous conclusion. In this paper, on the basis of previous studies, respectively from the national and regional levels of economic growth, the development of China's insurance effect empirical analysis. First, a nonlinear LSTR model profoundly reveals the mechanism of China's insurance internal influence economic growth. The empirical results show that: (1) the development of China's insurance has obvious threshold effect on economic growth, that is the size of an economic growth rate of a direct impact on the economic growth effects of the current insurance development. The current one when the economic growth rate is too fast or too slow, that dlngdp (-1) gt; .17261 or dlngdp (-1) 0 ≤ 06 737 when the decline in the growth rate of premium income in the current period (rising) 1% will cause the rate of economic growth decrease (increase) 0.95641%; currently a moderate economic growth, namely 0.06737 lt; dlngdp (-1) ≤ 0.17261 when current premium income growth by one percentage point will boost the economic growth rate of 0.15567 percentage points higher insurance played a certain extent reduce the fluctuations in the economy, to iron out the role of the economic cycle. (2) Current insurance has a significant role in promoting the development of economic growth over the same period, this role is showing obvious stages and non-linear characteristics. 1980-1992, showing a significant nonlinear characteristics; linear feature is more obvious in 1993-2007; since 2008, once again showing a non-linear characteristics. (3) an insurance development on economic growth to a certain extent, indicating that China's insurance industry, there is the problem of the use of insurance funds channels too narrow, low investment efficiency. Secondly, as the theoretical basis for the correction of GJ model using panel data threshold effect model empirical analysis of the impact of China's 30 provinces, life insurance and non-life insurance development on economic growth. The empirical results show that: (1) the level of regional economic development is an important threshold variables affect the economic growth effects of the development of the regional insurance. (2) regional life insurance and non-life impact of the development on economic growth has a double threshold effect, significantly inhibited the economic growth in the development of the province with a lower level of economic development both life and non-life insurance; moderate level of economic development development of the provinces life has a certain role in promoting economic growth, non-life development of economic growth to a certain extent, these two effects are not obvious; provinces in the level of economic development of the life insurance and non-life insurance development on economic growth have a strong role. (3) the development of regional life insurance play to the positive effects of economic growth significantly higher than the threshold of the regional non-life insurance. Provinces with per capita GDP of more than 10,082 yuan, the effect of positive economic growth in the development of non-life insurance will begin to be felt; the only province per capita GDP reached 23,219 yuan, life insurance development will be a significant role in promoting economic growth. (4) from the point of view of China's economic development level, until the end of 2008, the per capita GDP of only two provinces of Guizhou and Gansu in the 30 provinces in the country has not reached 10,082 yuan, the development of non-life insurance more than 90% of the country's provinces have begun to promote economic growth; province more than 23,219 yuan per capita GDP is only 10, only about 30% of the province, life insurance development has a positive economic growth effects. Above empirical analysis can be more intuitive and accurate understanding of the historical stage of China's insurance industry and the development of space, thus correctly grasp the development trend of China's insurance industry, the future of the structural adjustment of the policy development of China's insurance industry, insurance products, as well as Insurance development plan to provide important data to support the theoretical basis.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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