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An Empirical Research on How Chinese Imports Promote Its Economic Growth

Author: XuYuan
Tutor: ZhangLiJuan
School: Shandong University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Import Trade Economic Growth GDP Co-integration Analysis Granger Causality Analysis
CLC: F752.6;F124
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 168
Quote: 0
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Abstract

Imports of a country’s external trade is an important part of economic and trade activities.However,since the inception of international trade,stressing the export trade, under-estimating or even neglecting the import trade in economic growth, is a long-term tendency in policy practices and research in China.Under the background that economic globalization pushes forward quickly, a systematic study in the function and the mechanisms of import to the economic growth is necessary in making full use of native advantages and other countries’strength.This paper starts from the economic growth theories and the development of the import of our country, thoroughly studies the impact of import to the economic growth:from the total impact, the structure, and the mechanism of how the import promotes the economic growth. Imports not only releases the supply restrict, but also optimize industrial structure and promotes the improvement of efficiency, then the economic growth is realized. So, the adjustment of import policy is very urgent according to international or national circumstance, or in order to accelerate our economy, political and social needs.The development experiences of the world show that a country’s economic growth must have a certain degree of dependence on imports. In China,the fluctuation of import growth rate and GDP growth rate is reaching unanimity. But in time, import growth rate is prior to GDP growth rate. This shows imports can promote China’s economic growth. Therefore, research on the correlation of the imports and economic growth, how import promotes China’s economic growth, the action mechanism and pathway is of important theoretical and practical significance. To do this work,this article in accordance with raising the questions-analysing the questions-solving problems,the following methods have been usede:qualitative analysis combine Quantitative analysis,theoretic analysis combine empirical test, data combine chart,etc. Firstly,this paper reviewed the relevant literature about imports and economic growth.Then gave the theoretical analysis on the correlation between import trade and economic growth,the mechanism and pathway of how import promotes economic growth,and the policies and measures to promote economic growth.To analysize the imports’effect on economic growth,the following methods have also been used:based on the relevant economic data since the reform and opening in China, regression analysis, cointegration analysis, granger causality test,error correction model.And the corresponding suggestion have been given also.By analyzing the relations between imports and China’s economic growth, this paper affirms the importance of import trade to economic growth impetus. And choosing Russia, Australia, France and Japan as samples, the paper analyzes the different role of different import trade structure in promoting China’s economic growth. The result shows that enlarge importing advanced technologies, key equipment, energy and raw materials that China lacks, and promote the diversification of imports will be more conducive to China’s economic growth. To expound the imports’effect on economic growth,the paper is based on the following facts:make up supply shortfall, optimize the allocation of resources, promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, abducte domestic demand, stimulate technical innovation, ease trade friction,etc.Use Statistical data and measurement analysis, to study the inner link of imports and economic growth, Results show that they have a long-term stability of the dynamic equilibrium relation.The following suggestion have been given:expand import moderately, optimize import structure, perfect import tax policy and management of import prices, realize the basic balance between import and export.This paper concentrates on changing the export-oriented trend in people’s mind, conforms the enormous impact of import on the economic growth on an applying study, thus has an useful meaning on improving the trade management system.

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