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The Positive Role of China Railway Construction Investment to Economic Growth and the Determinination of Optimal Investment

Author: LiZuo
Tutor: LiaoChangYong
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: Investment in railway construction Economic growth Optimal Investment Scale Cointegration
CLC: F124;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 206
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Railway as popularity transport is the main artery of China's national economy, closely linked with the social production, the people's quality of life and social welfare level, occupies a very important position in China's transport system. But in recent years, almost all about during the Spring Festival railway \In 2008, in order to withstand the impact of the international financial crisis on China, the State Council promulgated the expansion of domestic demand, protect economic growth ten measures. One is to speed up the construction of railway infrastructure, focusing on the construction of a number of passenger dedicated line, the Coal Transportation Corridor project and the western main line railway. Railway construction to become the new hot spot to stimulate economic growth, investment in railways' contribution to economic growth has become one of the hot issues of the theorists. Then, the railway construction investment to promote economic growth? China's railway construction investment on economic growth impetus in the end how much? Railway construction in China at this stage whether the investment is optimal scale? Article will focus on a more detailed discussion of these issues, The study of these issues, not only enriched the theory of China's investment in infrastructure, and provide reference and recommendations for China's railway investment policy, at the same time withstand the economic crisis, to improve the efficiency of social production and people's living standards, to maintain steady and rapid development of the national economy has a certain practical significance. This article in accordance with the theoretical basis - Qualitative analysis - quantitative analysis - policy evaluation and recommendations, \coefficient and to promote efficiency, and apply the optimal scale of investment in infrastructure model to come to China's railway construction Optimal Investment Scale Finally, the lack of investment in railway construction, China's current status quo and the first few chapters conclusions on the current China continue to increase railway construction The scale of investment policy are briefly reviewed, and briefly given the proposal to increase investment in China's railway construction. The text is divided into five parts. The first part is an introduction, brief description of the purpose and significance of this study, research status at home and abroad, this research ideas and methods, and this article possible innovations and deficiencies. The second part introduces the theory of infrastructure investment and economic growth. This section first describes the concept of infrastructure investment, classification and characteristics of the concept of economic growth and the impact of factors pointed out that one of the investment for boosting economic growth, \aspects: First, investment activities caused by the the pull effect increased demand for social products and services delivered after the end of the investment activities of fixed assets for the expanded reproduction material conditions, thus contributing to the increase in the gross national product of the supply-driven effects. Finally, based on the theory of infrastructure investment to economic growth effects of infrastructure investment, infrastructure investment on economic growth the forward induced effects and backward ripple effect. Infrastructure investment to economic growth the forward effect induced effect refers to the period in infrastructure construction, industrial chain relationships to other industry infrastructure investment increased demand, and thus boost economic growth. Subsequent ripple effect of infrastructure investment on economic growth means after the completion of the infrastructure, improve production and living conditions to attract investment, reduce costs, improve efficiency, etc. to drive the development of the industrial, agricultural, commercial, tourism and other sectors or industries, and thus boost economic growth effect. The part is the basic point of this article provides a theoretical support behind the qualitative and quantitative analysis. From a qualitative point of view, the third part of the analysis of the role of China's railway construction investment on economic growth. First reviewed the course of development after the liberation of China's railway construction investment, followed by the use of the infrastructure investment theories from a qualitative point of view, the role of China's railway construction investment on economic growth, investment in railway construction has two major economic growth effect: forward induced effect and backward ripple effect. Forward-induced effects and discusses mainly from three aspects of iron and steel, cement and employment. Increase in railway construction investment is not only to promote an increase in the demand for raw materials such as steel, cement, and led to the industrial sector and railway construction industry employment levels improve, make a corresponding contribution to present our country to weather the financial crisis, to ease the employment pressure. Backward ripple effect is mainly effective use of the infrastructure investment theory to analyze the effect of supply of railway construction investment on economic growth to promote. That is to increase investment in railway construction in China is conducive to improving the investment environment to attract foreign investment; conducive to reduce transportation costs and warehousing costs, and increase the speed of capital turnover, improve the efficiency of the use of funds; conducive to the expansion of the domestic industry market, optimizing the allocation of resources, and promote tourism consumption; conducive driven the rise and development of the city, a hub of the economy, promote regional economic growth. The fourth part of China's railway construction investment to promote economic growth in the role of quantitative analysis. This section contains two aspects, that China's railway construction investment on economic growth to promote the role of quantitative analysis and railway construction in the determination of the optimal scale of investment. Limited data, This selection of the accounting for the vast proportion of the investment in railway construction railway infrastructure investment as the sample data. On the one hand, the determination of the coefficient of elasticity and promote the efficiency of the railway infrastructure investment and GDP. Cointegration theory, through the establishment of the error correction model Can conclude that China's railway infrastructure investment in the long-term volatility and short-term fluctuations affect both the change in GDP, but the role in the control of long-term fluctuations in relatively large. In the long term, the coefficient of elasticity of the GDP of the railway infrastructure investment is 0.27 for each additional 1% in the railway infrastructure investment, GDP increased by 0.27%. In the short term, the modulus of elasticity of the GDP of the railway infrastructure investment is 0.089, that the railway infrastructure investment increased 1%, GDP increased by 0.089%. At the same time, to promote the efficiency of China's railway infrastructure investment to GDP is 9.9, far greater than 1, the railway infrastructure investment is a positive role in promoting economic growth, high efficiency. However, increasing the role of the railway infrastructure investment on economic growth is not unlimited. The excess of the railway infrastructure investment will be diverted to other investments, resulting in wasted investment, but to promote a decline in GDP growth. Thus, the determination of the optimal scale of investment in railway infrastructure is particularly important. On the other hand, the model based on the optimal scale of investment in infrastructure, railway infrastructure investment in China after the reform and opening up and the GDP growth rate data analysis derived the optimal size of railway infrastructure investment was 0.81, which is a short-term dynamic data, that is, when the railway infrastructure investment in China accounted for a proportion of GDP that year was 0.81%, the railway infrastructure investment scale optimal, greater than or less than the proportion of GDP growth will reduce. Part V of views on China's railway policy combined with the actual situation of China's railway construction, and On the conclusion of the first few chapters, and gives some suggestions to increase our investment in railway construction. This chapter first analyzes the status quo of China's railway construction investment, from the point of view in 2008, the railway construction investment more than the optimal scale of investment, to some extent reduce the rate of economic growth, but in the long run, China's lack of investment in railway construction should continue to maintain the same policies to increase investment in railway construction, and from the front of the econometric analysis shows that the long-term effects of the railway construction investment is far greater than the short-term effect. With China's gradual economic recovery in 2009 and future years, GDP back to the track of rapid growth, there is more demand for railway construction, the authors believe that to continue to maintain the policy of large-scale railway construction investment is in line with China's national conditions. However, the reference to the optimal scale of investment should pay attention to two things, the scale of investment in railway construction First exit the proactive fiscal policy in our country, should be appropriately reduced; railway facilities meet the needs of production and life a few years later, when the scale of investment in railway construction should refer to the optimal scale of investment to fluctuate slightly. The last of China's railway construction on the increased investment Talking some suggestions to make investment decisions provide a reference for decision-making layer. I limited research capacity in the qualitative analysis range is not wide enough; quantitative analysis limited to data collection difficulties, lack of data for individual years; addition, the views of China's railway construction investment policy is the more abrupt simple. Urge teachers to inadequacies in the text to give valuable advice to constantly improve.

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