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Study on the Finance’s Effects on Industrial Upgrading in Xinjiang

Author: ZhangZuo
Tutor: HeJian
School: Shihezi University
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Economic Growth Unemployment Econometric Model
CLC: F127;F832.7
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 89
Quote: 1
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Abstract

Economic growth and unemployment are two major study fields of macro-economics. And research in the two fields have get fruitful achievement, however the study on the relationship between the two studies are relatively few. This paper aims to explore the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Xinjiang in the period of transition, thus can find out the internal mechanism of economic growth and an effective way of unemployment governance. As a multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-cultural western province, Xinjiang is an important fulcrum of economic growth in western region, and also the strategic barrier of North West Frontier. Therefore, a good deal of the issues in Xinjiang’s economic growth and unemployment in governance at this stage and for a long time, is not only related to the own economic development in Xinjiang, but also to long-term stability of China. With the push of reform and the strategic adjustment of economic structure, the problem of unemployment has become increasingly prominent. There is great strategic significance to study further the relationship between economic growth and unemployment of Xinjiang in theory and practice.This paper studies the linear relationship between economic growth and the real unemployment rate, starts from estimating the real unemployment rate of Xinjiang. Firstly, through summarizing the existing study of this topic based on reading a lot of literature, we identify the starting point of this paper. And the theoretical knowledge related to this article is sorted out to provide a theoretical foundation for the empirical analysis. Secondly, Xinjiang’s economic growth and unemployment is also analyzed by using describing statistical methods. The situations of Xinjiang’s economic growth and unemployment are found out, along with the actuality of the gap between Xinjiang and developed provinces. Thirdly, this paper estimates the real unemployment rate in Xinjiang using correlation analysis method, based on which we firstly study the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate using the OLS method, then do multi-factor analysis about economic growth and unemployment rate with the method of principal component analysis. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis conclusions, policy recommendations such as to expedite the transfer of surplus labor, improve and implement positive employment policy, and actively adjust the industrial structure and make efforts to increase the tertiary industry employment are given.Through this study we find that experienced 30 years of reform and opening up, the economy of Xinjiang has achieved great development. GDP annual growth rate is more than 10%; per capita GDP is developing well; with the adjustment of industrial structure, the tertiary industry has achieved remarkable development. However, along with the good economic development the unemployment problem in Xinjiang has not been solved yet. What’s more, no matter of the single factor or multiple factors, there are significant linear relationship between economic growth and the real unemployment rate in Xinjiang. When analyzed with single factor, when GDP increases 1 percent, the unemployment rate will reduce 1.11 percent, while the economy increases 3 percent, the unemployment rate will reduce 0.94 percent considering the level of urbanization, the CPI, total investment in fixed assets, the proportion of qualified personnel employed in total employment and the proportion of employment in the tertiary industry. The variable coefficient shows that changes in economic growth and changes in the unemployment rate are negatively related, consistent with the general principles of economics.The study on relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Xinjiang is possible to get some valuable research findings, the achievements of this study may has a certain reference value for Xinjiang’s economic development and governance of unemployment.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Local financial services industry
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