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Research on RMB Internationalization in the Context of the International Monetary System Change

Author: HuangKeFeng
Tutor: WangXiuZhi
School: Guangxi Normal University
Course: National Economics
Keywords: International Monetary System International financial crisis Change RMB internationalization
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 752
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Abstract


History tell us that International Monetary System must adapt to the world economic and political power structure and evolution with them. Major economic or political events will lead to change in the International Monetary System. The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has finally evolved into a global financial crisis. It fully expose defects in the current dollar-dominated International Monetary System. The United States transfer risk and the cost of crisis to other countries. The United States monetary policy usually does not consider global liquidity need, which always result in global financial instability. Once again, we explore what kind of International Monetary System can ensure global financial stability and promote world economic development. The financial crisis has shaken dollar’s status as well as the world’s confidence in dollar. The current International Monetary System does not meet the requirement of the world economy development as well as political and economic change. Most of countries call for reform the current unfair International Monetary System and request for new international currencies to establish a fair and diversified International Monetary System.History tell us that as long as there was superpower country, its currency must play a central role in the international monetary system, for example, the pound and the dollor. In2010, China overtook Japan as the second largest economy in the world, but the yuan has not gain international status with it. Over the past100years, it is rare that the currency of the second largest economy in the world is not an international currency. It is very awkward that China have to bear the third currency exchange rate fluctuation in international trade and investment. Therefore, as China has become the second largest economy in the world, the financial crisis lead to change in the international monetary system and the world call for new international currencies, China should take full advantage of the favorable domestic and international situation to promote RMB internationalization according to China’s actual conditions and economic development.This paper describes the historical change background in the international monetary system at first. It will help us find out the evolution law of the IMS and its future prospect from historical perspective. In this section this paper focuses on the historical change background in the international monetary system, the characteristics and shortcomings of the current international monetary system and the current financial crisis has shaken the international monetary system. This paper also explore why the major international currencies can not solve the current problems in the international monetary system and whether RMB internationalization could solve these problems. Then the paper review the major currencies such as sterling, dollar, euro and yen’s internationalization process. It will help for RMB internationalization to understand the history of major international currency internationalization process. So we can stand on the shoulders of our predecessors to avoid detours.On the next section, the paper deeply analysis RMB internationalization background on the new international situation.This section mainly include the content and role of RMB internationalization, RMB internationalization’s domestic demand and international demand change, and RMB internationalization cost and benefit analysis. Quantitative analysis RMB internationalization seigniorage revenue which can be measured. We select China neighboring countries as a sample to estimate the yuan international seigniorage income. Then this paper deeply analysis the situation of the RMB internationalization at the present. We examine the progress of RMB internationalization by three aspects which include international trade, global foreign exchange market and foreign exchange reserves. At the end of this paper, on the basis of international monetary system change, the inspiration of major currencies internationalization historical process, deeply analysis RMB internationalization background on the new international situation and the situation of the RMB internationalization at the present, the paper propose the development strategy of RMB internationalization.The conclusion of this paper:As China has become the second largest economy in the world, the financial crisis lead to change in the international monetary system and the world call for new international currencies, China should take full advantage of the favorable domestic and international situation to promote RMB internationalization. RMB internationalization should be mainly market-based choice and supplemented by government’s promotion. To achieve the goal of RMB internationalization, the most important thing is to continually enhance China’s comprehensive national strength. Whether RMB can eventually become an international currency, depending on whether Chinese economy continually maintain high growth in the future. Therefore, transform the development mode of China’s economic growth to ensure sustainable economic growth is the most important thing at the present, which can ensure continually enhance China’s comprehensive national strength. Meanwhile, China should continue to strength and improve financial market reform, participate in international financial cooperation positively, improve the level of financial supervision, enhance the ability of financial innovation, which could provide a solid backing to RMB internationalization. We have every reason to believe that RMB internationalization is the definite result of China’s comprehensive national strength continuous enhancement and the domestic financial market continuous improvement.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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