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The Reasearch of the RMB Exchange Rate Regime

Author: LiZuoFei
Tutor: DongWenJiang
School: Liaoning Normal University
Course: Political Economics
Keywords: Exchange rate regime International monetary system U.S.Dollar Hegemony Double surpus Plaza Accord RMB internationalization
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 134
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Abstract


The overall trend of the current international monetary system is diversified. The majorinternational currencies are just not the dollar, but the euro and yen have also a higherproportion of the official currency reserves in all country. But in essence, the currentinternational monetary system based on dollar hegemony led. Dollar assets still occupy themajority in the world official foreign exchange,and the United States is the only authorized toissue and printing of the U.S.National, which determines the control of power and influenceof the dollar in the world economy.In recent years, accompanied by the rise of China’s economy and international status,RMB is facing increasing appreciation pressure and the fiction between countries in exchangerates is growing. Western countries, particularly the United States take the view that RMB isundervalued and claimed that the low value of renminbi led to the increase in domesticunemployment. At the same time, China’s current and capital account deficit is a source ofRMB appreciation inherent pressure. In this environment, the value of the renminbi upgrate isan inevitable trend, the key is how to grasp and regulate the magnitude of the appreciation aswell as the overall reform direction of the RMB exchange rate regime in the new enviromentand specific measures.Through the introduction of the basic theory of exchange rate, reviewing of the wholeprocess of the evolution of the international monetary system, understanding the reasons forthe formation of the current international monetay system, having a in-depth analysis of thecurrent monetary situation as well as learning from the experience of Euro and yen integration,summarize the overall development direction of RMB—internationalization.In the dollar hegemony situation, the RMB exchange rate reform faces dilemma. Thefirst is how to stabilize the exchange rate and defuse the pressure of appreciation; the secondis how to weigh the negative impact of the high foreign exchange reserves to China’seconomy. The root of the two major problems is sustained surplus of foreign trade in thecurrent and captial projects in a long time, which makes the rapid accumulation of foreignreserves and the inherent power of the appreciation of the RMB. But the most fundamentalreason is the U.S.Dollar Hegemony. Therefore, the real solution is the internationalization ofthe RMB.In the current international monetary system, it is necessary to solve the difficulties facedby China’s exchange rate reform, and ultimately achieve the goals of the internationalizationof the RMB. So, we should take two steps in a progressive manner. Firstly, further use andimprove the current managed fliating exchange rate system. Peg to the U.S.dollar and take thegradual expansion of the exchange rate floating space so as to ensure the smooth developmentof the domestic economy. Second, in the medium term through a series of control measures,expand the exchange rate flexibility and ultimately lay the foundation for the development ofthe RMB regionalization and internationalization. Finally, through the implement of the RMBcross-border movement mechanism and the establishment of the offshore market, with thesupervision of the financial system, ultimately realize the internationalization of the RMB.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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