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Empirical Research on World Economic Fluctuations Impact on China Economy Based on the Transmission Mechanism

Author: AnXiaoHu
Tutor: LinYong
School: Northwest Normal University
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: economic fluctuation transmission mechanism H-P filtering Timevarying Parameter economic growth
CLC: F124
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 5
Quote: 0
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With the rapid growth of China’s total economic output and the unceasing deepening of opening to the outside world,world economic fluctuations have a more significant impact on China’s Macroeconomic.A comprehensive understanding and recognition of this kind of influence,and then determining China’s foreign economic policy have important significance.In order to solve this problem,this paper use the impulse response function and variance decomposition to make Empirical Research on the correlation between world economic fluctuations and China’s foreign trade economy based on VAR model and H-P filtering.Moreover,this paper also conducts empirical analysis on world economic fluctuations impact on China’s economic growth concerning transmission mechanism on the basis of state space model and kalman filtering.Thus,we get the following conclusions.(1)The world economic fluctuations has had a significant positive impact on China’s foreign trade,and the positive influence continues for a long time,which will be basically eliminated at stage7after the initial impact generated.The conclusion shows that with the scale of China’s foreign trade continues to expand,while facing the reality that our foreign trade dependence is high,the development of China’s foreign trade is bound to become more influenced by the world economic fluctuations.But in the environment of today’s world economic weakness and slow economic growth in the United States,Japan and Europe,the possibility of adverse impact of the development of world economy on our country foreign trade economy continuously improve.(2)World economic fluctuations have a significant impact on China’s economic growth through transmission variables.China’s economy has gradually integrated into the world economy,and has been affected by world economic fluctuations, there is obviously positive correlation.From the perspective of respond to fluctuations in the world economy on the basis of the theoretical and empirical analysis,based on the above research, this paper puts forward the following countermeasures.First,we should strengthen the capacity of government to control macro-economic,maintain the stability of the financial system, improve the international cooperation mechanism to prevent and dissolve the risk;Second,fully tapping the potential of the domestic market, reducing the impact of world economic fluctuations on China through trade channels,optimizing the structure of export markets,and spreading the risk of the impact of world economic fluctuations on China;Third,to maintain a stable exchange rate policy and to improve the access of foreign capital "threshold" to guarantee that the sustained and steady development of China’s economy finally based on their power,and while encouraging Chinese enterprises to invest abroad to ease the pressure of economic fluctuations caused by export fluctuations;Finally,we should improve the energy efficiency,strengthen the development of alternative energy,improve the laws and regulations of tourism, and establish the concept of sustainable development.

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > Economic construction and development
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