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Investment Risk Analysis of Wastewater Projects Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Its Simplified Method

Author: JiangPengFei
Tutor: MaShouFeng
School: Tianjin University
Course: Business Administration
Keywords: Sewage treatment Economic Evaluation Risk Analysis Monte Carlo simulation Investment decisions
CLC: F299.24
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 314
Quote: 0
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Abstract


With the diversification of the investment system , the state gradually introduce competition mechanism in the wastewater treatment industry . In accordance with the principle of \Research and Application of great significance. Firstly, risk , project risk , investment risk analysis and investment risk analysis theoretical research progress and commonly used methods are reviewed ; then briefly describes the overview of the urban sewage treatment industry and Monte Carlo simulation method . The Monte Carlo method is an effective way to solve the problem of the uncertainties random probability , investment risk analysis focus on the economic evaluation analysis , the Monte Carlo simulation technology introduced to the sewage treatment project risk analysis and economic evaluation of discriminant index simulation process , a number of trials of the simulation results ; \analysis process , come to the a feasible project 's probability , can be seen using this method of risk probability analysis is appropriate ; Furthermore, in-depth study and derivation engineering examples , drawn in the net present value criteria do not direct sampling analog approximate solution to the simplified simulation method of the probability that the project is feasible . Following extensive validation and error analysis , this method of calculation results with Monte Carlo simulation results vary considerably , with the advantages of manual calculations simple and fast , and can write the calculation process , in the universal application of probabilistic risk analysis of the feasibility study report ; Finally, attention should be paid to the risk probability analysis , the correct approach to risk analysis conclusions and recommended to take necessary measures for risk analysis conclusions .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Municipal economic profiles of countries in the world cities > China > Infrastructure and utilities
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