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Tianjin Airport Logistics Processing Area Neighborhood Center construction project , the traditional residential areas in commercial facilities formats scattered small shops scattered to integrate into a set of community shopping , leisure, entertainment, dining in one-stop commercial area . Neighborhood center using the horizontal integration chain business model so that each neighborhood commercial press unified brand and unified management of a chain district ; also be able to help consumer groups , to vertical integration business opportunities. Carry out the project feasibility study , to ensure the smooth completion of the project , operational and investment recovery , and the realization of economic and social benefits of the project has a very important significance. In this paper, Tianjin Airport Logistics Processing Area Neighborhood Center construction project as the research object , using a combination of theory and practice, research methods , from a technical , economic, environmental , social, risk and other aspects of the feasibility study . As the project investment, long duration, long payback period , and thus this article focuses on project risk analysis and evaluation carried out . In the analysis of project investment and benefits constitute the basis of the risk factors of the project identification and analysis. However, in practice investment projects are often affected by many random factors , these factors have an impact on the project and constantly changing, and thus to a systematic analysis of these factors has great difficulty . Monte Carlo method is based on the distribution of random variable values ??, simulation project investment process , through a large number of independent , double counting , get multiple simulation results , according to the statistical theory to calculate the statistics of the simulation results obtained relevant economic evaluation statistical characteristics , and thus the project investment returns and risks have a clearer estimate. This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation analysis of the project cost risk , financial risk , duration risk analyzes evaluated from the results obtained , the project has a higher overall risk-resisting ability , and the ability to achieve the expected return on investment objectives.
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