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Research on Dynamic Mechanism of Economic Growth in Inner Mongolia Based on Endogenous Economic Growth

Author: LiCunGang
Tutor: LiChangQing
School: Inner Mongolia University of Technology
Course: Finance
Keywords: Economic growth Capital equipment State-space model HP filter
CLC: F127
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 254
Quote: 4
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Abstract


In recent years, the economic development of the Inner Mongolia region showing the happy situation of high growth, high economic growth in Inner Mongolia power is the object of the paper examines. Constructed distinguish between capital equipment and construction capital endogenous growth model, and then estimates the marginal revenue of capital equipment, the marginal returns to examine the use of equipment capital equipment capital endogenous technological progress. The article in the Inner Mongolia region's economic growth policy recommendations are given on the basis of empirical research. Firstly measure capital endogenous technological advances three propositions: the relative rate of technological progress in equipment investment is equal to the rate of change in investment in construction output prices relative to investment in equipment prices; marginal revenue of capital equipment and equipment investment in technological progress is proportional to the speed; inversely proportional to the relative price of equipment capital building capital marginal income gap and equipment investment. On this basis, the article an empirical analysis of the level of technological progress in the accumulation of capital in the Inner Mongolia region 1986-2007, first of all, by the price index of investment in equipment and construction investment price index and the GDP deflator, analysis equipment capital endogenous technological progress. Then, build a case of building capital and equipment capital endogenous growth model, the state space model estimates the dynamic value capital equipment and construction capital contribution to economic growth, and then get a marginal equipment capital since 1986 gains. The article hp filter method calculates the potential economic growth of the region of Inner Mongolia. Finally, Inner Mongolia's economic growth policy recommendations. The findings show that: first, by the price index of investment in equipment and construction investment price index and the GDP deflator, equipment investment in Inner Mongolia in 1990-2007 the average annual rate of technological progress, at least in the 2.5% -3.5%. Second, by the endogenous growth model analysis, the marginal revenue of capital equipment has been a downward trend, and that technological advances in equipment capital endogenous levels begin to decline, but the marginal benefit of capital equipment in recent years is still maintained at more than 1.32, far higher than the world average, the capital, especially capital equipment in the past few years, and in the next few years will also be the strong momentum of the Inner Mongolia region's economic growth. Third, the HP filter estimates the potential economic growth rate since 1990 of the Inner Mongolia region to maintain more than 10% in recent years is more than 15%, but since 2003 has been on a downward trend. Can be seen from the above three points, the capital is strong momentum over the last few years of high economic growth in Inner Mongolia in the next few years will be the strong momentum of high economic growth, but the endogenous technological advances in recent years began to decline, the potential economic growth rate began to fall, and therefore, can not blindly rely on high investment to support high economic growth or high growth is not sustainable. In the long run, you want to maintain high economic growth, increase investment in research to improve the level of exogenous technological progress is the only way.

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