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Empirical analysis of China 's economic growth in the volume of employment

Author: CaoAnDing
Tutor: ZhaoSongShan
School: Dongbei University of Finance
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: Economic growth Employment Structural break ANN
CLC: F241.4
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2005
Downloads: 552
Quote: 1
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Abstract


To a society, Unemployment brings out countless economic loss, Furthermore, this loss has different effect to different group .it is common knowledge that the lower class be harmed greater .when this loss is too huge to be borne, riot will burst out,which maybe lead to a regime’s alteration ,and erodes the basement of society development and economic increase . China, as a developing and transforming country with a great of population, confronts very serious challenges. So, we shall study China’s employment problem in order to deal with it. There are many options for studying the problem, but now China as a developing country, we must resolve problem during progressing process, we study the relationship between employment and economic increase for exploring the laws in order to give some useful advices to increase society’s welfare.This paper consists of six chapters .The first chapter shows this paper’s purpose 、 meaning and framework .The second chapter narrates relative works with the problem ,including Marxism’s 、 west economics’ and domestic work. The third chapter give us the definition 、 variable and econometric methods and models The forth chapter is the main body ,which study the relationship between employment and economic increase . In the following chapter, neural networks are used to predict the employment. The last chapter will show us this paper’s conclusion and advice.According to my knowledge, this paper may has the following innovation: (1) 、 we prove that salary and employment process are first-order unit root processes with structural breaks ; (2) 、 using Grander causality test with structural breaks ,we found that employment and economic increase have bilateral causality (3) 、consume and investment of government have no effect to employment (at least not significance in statistics) and consume of county have significant effect toemployment. (4) , we use ANN method to predict employment.The research method of the modem economics has two kinds, empirical research method and the norm research method. We use the two methods to analyze this problem, and want to find the law of them, but my featherhead and litter knowledge limit the effect.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Labor Economics > Labor force > Employment and unemployment
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